COPENHAGEN, Denmark — Analysts are keeping a close eye on Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and Company as the battle for dominance in the weight-loss drug market heats up. Novo Nordisk, Europe’s largest company, has dominated headlines since the anti-obesity drug was launched. The company, which makes weight loss and diabetes drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, has seen its stock rise exponentially as demand soars. But as competition in the industry intensifies — especially from Eli Lilly and Co. — some investors question which company will come out on top. For example, Soros Fund Management, the family office of George Soros, cut its stake in Novo Nordisk, according to documents released last week. Evan Seigerman, a biotech analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said there is a key difference between Novo Nordisk and its U.S. rivals. “The difference between the two names is that (Eli) Lilly is really controlling the supply … and Novo is still trying to supply Wegovy to the U.S. market,” he told CNBC’s Power Lunch earlier this month. All doses of Eli Lilly and Co’s weight-loss injection Zepbound are now available in the United States after supply issues at both companies, while some doses of Wegovy remain in limited supply, according to the Food and Drug Administration. Segelman described Eli Lilly as the “goat” — or the greatest of all time — in obesity after BMO lowered its price target on Novo Nordisk earlier this month. There were also significant differences in second-quarter profits at rival companies. Eli Lilly’s stock price rose 9.5% after the company released its earnings report, beating expectations. In comparison, Novo Nordisk’s share price fell 6.7% on the day of the earnings report after it lowered its profit outlook. “Is this the perfect quarter we were hoping for? Not necessarily,” Barclays analysts said of the Danish company, questioning whether the numbers were “good enough” for investors. However, the high concentration in “attractive markets” does not seem to worry Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. When asked why long-term investors should buy the stock, he told CNBC: “If you like obesity, if you like type 2 diabetes, then this is the place to come because we’re really focused on that.” “Certainly our business is highly concentrated, but our business is concentrated in a very attractive market and we are building adjacencies in the cardioembolic disease space and I think we have enough knowledge to play a role there,” he said there. play a role,” he said as the company released its latest report there. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks told CNBC that his company is seeing “incredible demand, and we’re not even trying that hard to market the drug.” “What you’re seeing is just consumer demand. Organic demand because we’re shipping more product because we have more supply online in the U.S.,” he added. Meanwhile, analysts remain bullish on both companies. According to FactSet data, 21 of the 32 analysts covering Novo Nordisk have a buy or overweight rating on the stock, with the average upside potential being about 10.3%. For Eli Lilly, 25 out of 30 analysts have a buy or overweight rating on the stock, with an average upside of 9.7%. Barclays equity analyst “Duopoly” Emily Field told CNBC that ultimately the two companies will continue to be the market leaders. “The obesity market remains poised to be the largest we’ve ever seen in pharmaceuticals. I don’t see anything that would prevent me from continuing to believe in the duopoly of these two companies as market leaders. Hold on over time.” ,” she said. She remains bullish on Novo Nordisk, saying she expects “their sales numbers to continue to revise upward today.” She also noted that the company has a “huge catalyst” coming before the end of the year: Phase III data from a study of a new obesity drug, cagrisema. Novo’s shares have risen about 46% in the past 12 months, while Eli Lilly’s shares have risen 68% over the same period. —CNBC’s Katrina Bishop contributed to this report.
