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Berlin, September 1 (Reuters) – German state election It’s a heavy blow to parties in German Chancellor Olaf Schulz’s government, and the historic victory for two anti-establishment parties could add to instability in an already restless governing coalition.
With just a year left before national elections in Europe’s largest economy, Sunday’s results look set to increase pressure on Scholz to take a tougher approach to the election. migrant and intensifying the debate over support for Ukraine as an issue dominating the campaign.
The German government’s shaky authority could also complicate European policy as neighboring France, the other major euro zone power, is still struggling to form a government. early election June and July.
All three parties in the federal government appear to have lost votes in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, according to early forecasts, underscoring the demise of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) as a major party. A forecast released by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen at 9pm (1900 GMT) put the plan at just 6-7.6% of the vote.
Junior coalition partners the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats risk being expelled from the Thuringian state parliament after failing to meet the 5% threshold.
Analysts said the most likely impact of the outcome would be an intensification of bickering within Scholz’s ideologically heterogeneous coalition.
“For us, it will be about asserting ourselves more strongly,” Kevin Kuehnert, general secretary of the Social Democrats, said on Sunday evening. “Don’t let us be led by the party that has just been kicked out of state parliament.”
The results reflect the increasing fragmentation of the political landscape and the rise of political power. anti-establishment party Governments across Europe are grappling with the crisis, including war in ukraine and inflation.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was the night’s big winner, taking 33.2% of the vote in Thuringia’s first regional election and almost as many votes as the Conservatives in Saxony.
Meanwhile, the populist left-wing Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) won more votes than all three parties in Scholz’s coalition, taking 11.5-15.6% just eight months after its founding. vote.
The strength of these anti-NATO, anti-immigration, and pro-Russian parties will make it more difficult to form ideologically consistent coalitions at the state and federal levels.
Reduce support for Ukraine?
The coalition partners, who have been in power since 2021, were divided even before the election after tensions erupted over the issue late last year. Budget This year and next year.
Their alliance was initially called the Progressive Alliance, but Greens co-leader Omid Nouripour last month called it a “transitional government” and expressed concern about the “many, many redundant disputes” particularly with the Liberal Democrats. expressed regret over fundamental ideological differences.
Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy leader of the FDP, said on Sunday that the election results showed that the alliance had “lost legitimacy” and was damaging the FDP, which would have consequences.
“With a gap of about 12 billion euros ($13.25 billion) remaining in the 2025 budget bill, tensions in the alliance are likely to resurface,” Teneo’s Carsten Nickel said in a research note.
However, Stefan Marschall, a political scientist at the University of Dusseldorf, said Scholz’s coalition was unlikely to break up completely because it would not be in the interests of the three parties, which have polled The results were all lower than the 2021 results.
Both BSW and the AfD have weakened their support, leading mainstream parties to take a harder line on immigration and potentially weakening support for Ukraine.
Alexander Clarkson of King’s College London said: “The issue will become more worrying and Germany may become more paralyzed, which means other countries such as Poland, France and Italy will need to lead the way.”
The formation of the BSW and its legalization in this vote could be particularly damaging to the SPD, which has lost more than a third of its supporters since 2021, with an approval rating of around 16%, and May see more left-leaning voters siphoned off.
Tricky alliance building
The vote could also spark a debate about the knock-on effects of an uneasy alliance.
With the Alternative for Germany unable to form a majority, it will be replaced by the conservatives, the runner-up – but in Thuringia, despite significant ideological differences, they will not be able to form a majority without the support of the Socialist Party.
Marshall said it could also have an impact on the upper house of the Bundesrat, which represents state governments, and thus influence the development of national policy.
At the same time, given the foreign policy views of the Socialist Party of Germany or the Alternative for Germany, an alliance with them at the federal level is unthinkable. This means that the stronger the mainstream parties, the harder it is to form a coherent governing majority, said Andre Brodotz, a political scientist at the University of Erfurt.
But analysts say voters may punish the mainstream parties’ incoherent coalition by voting more for anti-establishment parties in subsequent elections.
“Without political implementation, without real change, without reform, voters can say that the political process has been hijacked by elites,” said Oliver Lembeck, a political scientist at the University of Bochum. “It’s a vicious cycle.”
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