Russian President Vladimir Putin at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Russia on June 7, 2024.
Anton Vaganov | Reuters
As Ukraine continues its incursion into the Kursk border region, Russia has once again signaled that it is changing its official position on the use of nuclear weapons.
Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which nuclear weapons can be used, as it sees it as an “escalation” in the Western-backed war with Ukraine, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday.
Russia accuses the West of encouraging cross-border attacks in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have occupied nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory since they began on August 6.
Ryabkov told Russian state media TASS on Sunday that work to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons “has entered an advanced stage.”
“The direction of adjustment is clear, and it is also conditioned on the study and analysis of the experience of the development of conflicts in recent years, including… with our Western opponents in SVO (Special Military Operations),” Ryabkov said, referring to What is happening is Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine.
Ryabkov did not specify when any changes would be finalized, saying, “the time for completing this work is a rather difficult question, given that we are talking about the most important aspects of ensuring our national security,” he said, in comments translated by Google.
Conditions of use
Russia’s threats of force over the use of nuclear weapons are nothing new, and Ryabkov’s comments echo recent statements formulated by senior officials and KremlinIt was pointed out that Russia is preparing to change its national policy regarding the conditions for the acceptable use of nuclear weapons.
Ukraine’s incursions into Russian territory and its use of Western-supplied weapons to target military installations and infrastructure, particularly long-range missiles, have also raised the stakes on whether Moscow will consider using nuclear weapons to defend its territory.
As far as the current situation is concerned, Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against itself and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons,” the statement said. When survival is threatened.
Yars Ballistic Missile participates in the rehearsal of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, on May 7, 2022.
Bai Xueqi|Xinhua News Agency|Getty Images
Other conditions that could determine Russia’s use of nuclear weapons include “receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles against the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” and “enemy influence over vital national or military installations,” according to the document Google Translate.
Still, Russia described nuclear weapons in its 2020 policy as “a means of deterrence” and its use as “an extreme and necessary measure.” Russia calls its nuclear doctrine “defensive” and says it “takes all necessary efforts to reduce nuclear threats and prevent the deterioration of relations between states that could lead to military conflict, including nuclear conflict.”
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reiterated that Moscow will not hesitate to deploy such weapons if its territorial integrity and sovereignty are threatened.
In May this year, Russia held tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukrainian border and deployed such weapons in its ally Belarus.
In this still image from the film released on June 12, 2024, the Russian and Belarusian armed forces conduct the second phase of tactical nuclear exercises at an undisclosed location, and military vehicles of the Russian Leningrad Military District troops drive along the road.
Russian Defense Ministry | via Reuters
Tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield and are capable of destroying specific targets, such as military bases or training centers.
While they are less destructive than strategic nuclear weapons that can destroy entire cities, deploying such weapons would represent a serious escalation of war and raise concerns about direct confrontation with the West.
Putin has also expressed a willingness to change the conditions under which such weapons can be used, saying in June that the country’s nuclear doctrine was a “living tool” that could be changed.
“We should clarify what constitutes use or non-use (of nuclear weapons), and the specific circumstances under which nuclear weapons can be used. We have nuclear doctrine, everything is there… It clearly states: nuclear weapons can only be used in exceptional circumstances ——When national sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened, under special circumstances,” Putin saidAddressed the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.
“I do not think that this moment has arrived – there is no such need. However, this doctrine is a living tool and we are paying close attention to developments in the world around us and we do not rule out the possibility of making changes. “This doctrine ,” Putin added.
invasion urgency
Since Ukraine launched an ambitious cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk border region nearly a month ago, Russia appears to have been promoting changes in its national policy on the use of nuclear weapons to domestic and global audiences.
In August, Russia’s foreign minister, deputy foreign minister and Kremlin spokesman all said changes would be announced soon.
On September 26, 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (right) watched a Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise in Grodno, Belarus.
Sasha Moldowitz | Sasha MoldowitzGetty Images News | Getty Images
There are therefore questions about whether Russia might be preparing to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine in response to an operation that would embarrass the Kremlin and expose Russia’s defense weaknesses.
“Russian military doctrine has always held that nuclear weapons could be used if Russia’s territorial integrity was threatened. The scope for Russian retaliation is almost unlimited,” Quantum Strategies President David Roach said in an August analysis.
Roach described Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk as a “game changer,” adding that the operation could make a nuclear confrontation more likely because it “undermines NATO’s efforts to avoid ‘escalation.'”
“By invading Russia, Ukraine destroyed the alliance and, in particular, most of the lower rungs on the escalation ladder that the United States was trying to maintain,” he noted.
A soldier repairs a drone underground at a Ukrainian military position and a former Russian military position in Kursk, Russia, on August 18, 2024. Ukrainian forces operating in Russia’s Kursk region destroyed a second important bridge as they tried to penetrate further into Russia, a Ukrainian air force commander said.
The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Although Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it still positioned the war as a life-and-death war and accused the West of supporting Ukraine to destroy Russia. Ukraine’s Western allies in NATO disputed the claim and said continued military aid to Kiev was to defend the country’s territorial sovereignty and independence.
Ukrainian officials expressed hope that the incursion and crossing one of the Kremlin’s so-called “red lines” would allay Western concerns that Putin might resort to the use of nuclear weapons and might encourage more NATO allies to approve the use of long-range nuclear weapons. Target.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War downplayed Ryabkov’s comments, saying late Sunday that “Russian officials continue to engage in rote threats of nuclear force to encourage the West to self-deterrence and reduce support for Ukraine.”
“Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on September 1 that Russia would change its nuclear doctrine in light of the recent conflict and what the West calls an escalation in Ukraine, but noted that there was no set date for the change. ” ISW noted in its analysis,Add to:
“Ryabkov did not specify what the purported doctrinal change might be, and the ISW continues to assess that Russia remains highly unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in nuclear confrontation elsewhere.”
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