Vice President Kamala Harris (left) at the White House in Washington on July 22, 2024, and former President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey on August 15, 2024.
Nathan Howard | Gina Moon | Reuters
The results are in, and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election — at least according to what has been called the “Nostradamus” of presidential election predictions This is what historians say.
This is the latest election prediction from Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor at American University who claims to have successfully predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman revealed his decision in a video commentary Thursday morning new york times.
“The Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Leachman said in the film.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this game.”
His predictions are based on a historical index model he calls “Keys to the White House.”
This unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, uses 13 true and false statements targeting the current president’s party. statements to analyze the political landscape.
If six or more of these statements are false, the challenger (in this case, Trump) is expected to win.
Here are the key points, and Lichtman’s decision on each:
- Party authorization: After this midterm election, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the last midterm election. Wrong
- competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination. real
- Position: The current president is the candidate of the current party. Wrong
- third party: There are no significant third-party or independent activities. real
- Short term economics: The economy did not fall into recession during the campaign. real
- Long-term economics: Real per capita economic growth during his term equaled or exceeded the average growth of the previous two terms. real
- Policy changes: The current government has made significant changes to national policy. real
- Social unrest: There was no sustained social unrest during his term. real
- scandal: The current government has not been affected by major scandals. real
- Current charm: The current party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Wrong
- Challenger Charm: The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero. real
- Diplomatic/military failure: The current government has suffered no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
- Diplomatic/Military Success: The current government has achieved major successes in foreign or military affairs.
Regarding the last two keys, Leachman said, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys can flip.”
He pointed out that the Biden administration is deeply involved in Israel’s war in Gaza, which he called a “humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys turn out to be wrong, that means there are only five negative keys, which is not enough to put Donald Trump back in the White House,” Leachman told The Times.
Leachman’s analysis largely eschews poll results, campaign strategies, sound bites, policy plans and other factors that most political commentators and analysts tend to rely on.
But his system is already bearing fruit.
Leachman was one of the few political analysts to accurately predict before the 2016 election that Trump would defeat then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. However, Leachman’s model suggested that Trump would win the popular vote, which he lost despite winning the Electoral College.
Leachman accurately predicted President Biden would Defeat Trump in the 2020 competition.
Despite the unprecedented circumstances surrounding the 2024 campaign — including Harris replacing Biden as the nominee in the final months — Leachman expressed confidence that his keys will produce accurate projections.
“These keys absolutely work. They are the constant north star in political forecasting,” he said in Thursday’s video.
“The outcome is up to you,” he added. “So get out and vote.”
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