Harris defeating Trump is most likely outcome of CNBC Fed survey | Wilnesh News

Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as more likely to win the U.S. presidential election than former President Donald Trump for the first time in the 2024 election cycle, according to a Federal Reserve survey released by CNBC on Tuesday.

The survey’s 27 respondents included investment strategists, economists and fund managers. Of those, 48% said a Harris win was the most likely scenario, while 41% said Trump would win.

The survey was conducted between September 12 and 14, days after the first (and possibly only) debate between Harris and Trump.

The latest forecast differs from a CNBC Fed poll released in late July, when 50% predicted Trump would win and only 37% thought Harris would be elected president.

The July survey was released nine days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

Last month, when Biden was still in the race, 48% thought Trump was the most likely winner, while 35% predicted Biden would be re-elected. Another 17% were unsure or didn’t know.

Since Harris entered the race unopposed in late July, her presidential campaign has been fleshing out the vice president’s economic platform and policy proposals. National polls show that with less than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, the high cost of living remains the top issue facing voters.

Harris’ economic focus is on growing the middle class and lowering consumer costs, including providing housing subsidies, expanding tax credits and deductions, and cracking down on what she sees as corporate “price gouging.”

At the same time, Trump advocates extending and deepening tax cuts in the first term, implementing tough tariff policies on all imported products, and canceling some infrastructure investments by the Biden administration.

56% of respondents to the CNBC Fed survey believe that Trump’s presidency will be more beneficial to the stock market than the Harris administration.

Forecasts change when issues relate to the broader economy. Here, 44% say Trump is a better candidate for the overall economy, compared with 41% for Harris.

“Assuming Trump intends to implement his proposals, broad tariffs and mass deportations, even modest deportations of immigrants, would lead to higher inflation and a slowdown in the economy that could lead to decline..

Beyond purely economic issues, on the question of which candidate would be better for the country as a whole, 52% of respondents thought Harris would be better, while only 37% thought Trump would be better for the country as a whole.

“Assuming Trump intends to implement his proposals, broad tariffs and mass deportations, even modest ones, would lead to higher inflation and a slowdown in the economy,” said Joel Naroff. leading to economic recession.

“Beyond that, the two candidates’ proposals differ primarily in terms of winners and losers, rather than the impact on overall economic growth,” he added.

Respondents also predicted Harris’ economic proposals would be better for budget deficits and trade policy. They gave higher ratings to how Trump’s policy proposals would affect business regulations, inflation, jobs and taxes.

Regardless of who occupies the White House, the president’s policy agenda will have only a partial impact on the health of the U.S. economy.

For some people, this is a good thing. Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC, wrote: “Given the bad economic policies proposed by Trump and Harris, we really need to hope for divided government. .

Overall, respondents ranked the presidential election as the sixth-biggest risk to the U.S. economy out of eight possible choices. The No. 1 economic risk is the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates too late or too little.

On the issue of the independence of the Federal Reserve, 100% of people expect Harris to respect the independence of the Federal Reserve. Only 42% also trust Trump.

Richard Bernstein, CEO of Bernstein Consulting, wrote: “The Fed’s independence may be a real issue under Trump, but we must realize that there are only three provisions outlined in the Constitution. Branches of Government: Legislative, Judicial, and Executive “There is no fourth branch called the Federal Reserve, so the Fed has always been as independent as the existing three branches would have it. ”

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 at its meeting on Wednesday.