Economic woes caused by inflation appear to be accelerating a shift toward Republicans among Latino voters, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey that cut Democrats’ lead among key voting groups in half in a close presidential election. .
The survey of 1,000 Latino likely voters found Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee former President Trump 54% to 40%. That’s well below the 36-point lead President Joe Biden enjoyed on the eve of the 2020 election. Biden’s advantage is nearly half of Hillary Clinton’s 50-point lead over Trump in 2016, pointing to a long-term trend of a shrinking Hispanic population in the Democratic field.
“The scale of these problems is pretty staggering,” said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic polling firm that conducted the survey. “Life Cost and inflation are really factors that affect a lot of people.
The survey was conducted from September 15 to 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris’ 14-point lead is the narrowest for a Democratic candidate among Latino voters surveyed in the past four elections since at least 2012. Prefer Democratic control of Congress.
“The data in this poll is not a blip,” said poll partner Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster. “This is a continuation of a sharp and massive shift in the political identity of one of America’s most important groups of voters.”
On personality issues, Harris is far ahead among respondents: By a two-to-one margin, Latino voters surveyed said she would better meet their needs; 48% gave Harris a positive rating , while her support for Trump is 32%; she leads Trump by about 20 percentage points or more on who has the right temperament to serve as president and who is more trustworthy, capable and efficient.
But inflation and the cost of living, along with jobs and the economy, are the top two issues facing Latinos, the survey showed, mirroring surveys of the broader population. Trump leads Harris in both areas, with Trump leading Harris by 46% to 37% in dealing with inflation, and Trump leading Harris by 45% to 41% in dealing with the economy.
Harris leads by 39 points on who can treat immigrants most humanely and protect their rights, by 32 points on abortion, and even by 5 points on crime. Harris’ dominance on these issues underscores the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump’s support among Latino voters in this poll compared with 2020.
Among young voters aged 18-34, Harris’ lead over Trump has shrunk significantly, with support for the Democratic candidate just 10 points compared with 44 points in 2020. Harris’ support among Latino men is 47/47, while Biden leads this group by 17 points in pre-election 2020 polls. The Democratic advantage among Latina women is 26 points, but that’s about half of Biden’s lead in 2020.
All of these groups have poor evaluations of the economy, and Latino voters overall are as pessimistic about the economy as the rest of the country. Only 23% think the current economic situation is excellent or good, while 77% think the economic situation is fair or poor, almost the same as the results of all voters in CNBC’s August National Economic Survey. This is a potential problem for Democrats because Latinos have been fairly reliable Democratic voters and are completely different from Democrats on economic issues. In the CNBC survey, Democrats rated the economy as excellent or good at 42%, while Latinos rated it at 23% in this poll. 65% of Latinos say their wages lag behind inflation. While that number is about the same as the rest of the population, it’s 11 percentage points higher than the results from NBC’s 2022 Latino Survey. Young Latina women and adults say rising prices hit them hardest.
Of those who said they were falling behind, 48% said the biggest impact was the cost of groceries, 34% singled out rent and mortgage payments, and 10% highlighted rising medical costs.
While Latinos’ views on immigration vary widely, it was only rated the fourth most important area of concern, well behind inflation, jobs and even threats to democracy. The survey found that 62 percent of respondents believe immigrants help the country more than they hurt it, with 35 percent saying the opposite. This is the smallest positive showing for Latino immigration since at least 2006.
The survey showed that Trump leads Harris 47 to 34 on who is better at protecting the border and controlling immigration.
Fifty-two percent of Latino voters say it is more important to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants and prevent discrimination, while 47% say it is more important to secure the border and stop immigrants from entering the country illegally.
Still, 91 percent support a path to citizenship for undocumented spouses and 87 percent support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children.
Here’s a look at the demographic profile of Latino voters in the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey:
- Fifty-two percent said they spoke primarily English, while the remainder said they spoke only Spanish or both.
- 56% trace their family lineage to Mexico; 16% to Puerto Rico; 11% to Spain; 5% to Cuba; and 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- Forty-nine percent identify themselves as Democrats, 37% as Republicans and 13% as independents.
- 32% said they were liberal; 37% were moderate; and 29% were conservative.
- 49% were Catholic, 21% were Protestant, and 28% were other/no religion.
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