Gold prices hit record highs driven by two factors: rising tensions in the Middle East and a more dovish or accommodative stance by central banks around the world. I believe gold has more upside, which we can take advantage of in the underlying gold bullion market or in one of the leading gold miners like Harmony Gold (HMY) . Before we begin, it’s important to point out that I believe the boom in artificial intelligence will continue to grow over the next few quarters as central banks around the world ease monetary policy and the broader stock market remains in a secular bull market. Pushing the stock market sharply higher. But seasonality, escalating tensions in the Middle East, the fact that the next FOMC meeting isn’t until November, two weeks before the start of Q3 earnings season, leaves us in a waiting period, and I think the focus will be on the Middle East. Gold futures broke above the $1850 and $2100 resistance levels, which now act as support before we test technical resistance/targets around $3000/oz from the parallel channel. From a macro perspective, gold’s inability to rise during 2020-2022 has frustrated many gold bulls who expected a rebound during this period of volatility. Stocks sold off as inflation rose. But I think the key is that real interest rates are moving higher. The way I define “real interest rate” is the current nominal yield on a bond (in this case, the 10-year Treasury note), adjusted for expected 10-year inflation. Inflation is expected to be falling as the 10-year Treasury yield rises. Simply put, the real interest rate is the income you actually earn on a fixed-income investment, adjusted for inflation. If this number continues to rise, there will be no reason to hold lower-yielding metals. Once real 10-year interest rates begin to move lower as the market digests the impact of the Fed’s rate cuts, real yields will fall, creating an environment conducive to gold’s rise. Stock Play Harmony Gold is a South Africa-based gold miner that pays a 1.2% dividend. Looking back at the monthly chart from the late 1990s, the stock is trying to break through downside resistance at the current $11.25 level. I currently hold a 1% allocation to HMY in Inside Edge Capital’s dividend portfolio. Turning to the daily chart and consolidating around the pending monthly breakout level, I plan to increase my position to 2% on a breakout of average volume. The current 50-day average trading volume is 4.3 million shares, so we set a target of 5 million shares at $11.50 as the trigger for adding to the position. All in all, gold is rising on Middle East issues, but I think more important and more sustainable is the accommodative fiscal policy stance taken by global central banks, which will help drive stocks higher. The result could be lower U.S. yields and a weaker dollar, which, believe it or not, are conditions that lead to a rise in U.S. stocks. Therefore, my outlook is that gold will continue to rise alongside equities. However, if geopolitical tensions escalate into a full-blown crisis, then gold should continue to rise but my thesis for a stock market rebound will be fragile. -Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC Disclosure: (Gordon owns HMY in his wealth management firm, Inside Edge Capital. Chart shows MotiveWave and Optuma.) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are theirs alone The opinions expressed do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, online or other media. The above is subject to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not apply to your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Click here to view the complete disclaimer.
