JPMorgan said the best-case scenario for stocks would be for Friday’s jobs report to come in slightly above consensus. Investors will be closely watching the September labor market report due out on Friday morning. The data come at a time of economic uncertainty after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the U.S. central bank is shifting its focus to ensuring a strong labor market. The jobs report will certainly inform the next move at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, and any big departure from economists’ expectations could send stocks swinging in either direction. With that in mind, JPMorgan traders broke down how they think the stock market will react to Friday’s jobs report, due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, based on a few different scenarios. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 150,000 jobs to be added last month, while JPMorgan’s own chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli expected 125,000 jobs to be added. Here are the bank’s five scenarios: More than 200,000 new jobs: The S&P 500 is flat or up 0.5%. JPMorgan said the red-hot jobs report would indicate “the economy is about to restart from weakness this summer” and would lead some investors to believe the Fed might skip cutting interest rates at its November meeting. 160,000 to 200,000 new jobs added: S&P 500 rose 1% to 1.5%. JPMorgan traders identified this as their “Goldilocks scenario, as it would suggest higher growth in the absence of the inflationary impulse.” The market is likely to cut interest rates by 25 percentage points at the next Fed meeting in November. 140,000 to 160,000 new jobs added: S&P 500 rose 0.75% to 1.25%. That’s the consensus estimate, which still falls within JPMorgan’s “Goldilocks zone,” where the economy continues to grow at a rate that supports earnings expectations without restarting inflation. Still, job growth in this range is not enough to ease investor concerns about a potential recession. 110,000 to 140,000 new jobs added: JPMorgan traders expect the S&P 500 to decline between 0.5% and 1.5%. Data in this range could reignite concerns about economic growth and suggestions that the Fed is behind the curve and reacting too slowly to an emerging recession. Defensive bonds will outperform, while bond yields will fall. Fewer than 110,000 new jobs were added: S&P 500 fell 1.25% to 2%. JPMorgan believes this scenario could signal a recession starting as early as the fourth quarter of 2024, as nonfarm payrolls typically fall before an economic slowdown. Credit will outperform, while traders will unwind bullish cyclical and value trades.
