Fear is a stock market killer | Wilnesh News

This report comes from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Stocks tumble amid lingering concerns
main U.S. stock indexes retreated on Monday. this S&P 500 Index Down 0.96% Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.94%, Nasdaq Index down 1.18%. but Super Micro The stock price became a bright spot, rising 15.8%. European regional Stoke 600 The index rose 0.18%. Home furnishings led gains, closing up 0.97%, while technology stocks fell 0.65%.

No more big clips
Strategists told CNBC there is almost no chance the Fed will cut interest rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting after last week’s September jobs report beat expectations. Traders agree. A week ago, they were betting on a 34.7% chance that the Fed would cut rates sharply again; based on today’s data, that number is 0% CME Group Fed Watch Tool.

Artificial intelligence demand remains high
The artificial intelligence boom is “still some time away” Foxconn Foxconn CEO and Chairman Liu Yang told CNBC. Foxconn, which makes better-than-expected third-quarter profits, makes electronics for tech giants such as apple and NVIDIA. Demand for Nvidia’s newest chip, Blackwell, is “much better than we thought,” Liu said.

Tensions push oil prices higher
Oil prices rose about 3.7% on Monday on concerns that Israel would attack Iranian oil production facilities. One analyst said that if Israel attacked Kharg Island, it could disrupt 90% of Iran’s crude oil export shipments. Last week was the best week West Texas Intermediate Oil and Brent Oil prices have continued to rise for more than a year and a half. Both surged 9.1% and 8.4% respectively.

(PRO) Goldman Sachs gets more optimistic
The S&P 500 is in the red so far in October. but Goldman Sachs The S&P 500’s 2024 target was raised to 6,000 from 5,600, making it the second-highest forecast on Wall Street, according to a CNBC market strategist survey. Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month S&P target to 6,300 points from 6,000 points. Here’s why the bank is so bullish on the stock.

Friday’s blockbuster jobs report for September boosted sentiment and stocks enough that the major indexes reversed losses and ended last week higher, but only barely.

That aura is gone now. Markets are again grappling with rising oil prices, the potential for a reacceleration of inflation, lower-than-expected interest rate cuts and even the possibility of a distant recession.

Oil prices soared yesterday after their best week in more than a year. September’s big jobs report, futures markets are pricing in The probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates at all is 13.7% at the November meeting. That’s a big change from a week ago, when traders put the chance of a 50 basis point cut at 34.7%.

But what about recessions?

Admittedly, this is just speculation on my part. But it’s worth noting that, as CNBC’s Jeff Cox points out, the yield curve between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes is “close to returning to danger territory.”

Simply put, the yield curve inverts when the 10-year Treasury yield falls below the 2-year Treasury yield – a situation that has almost always preceded a recession since the mid-1970s. The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and returned to normal in early September.

However, after Monday, the gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields is now just 3.5 basis points. So for those investors paying attention to signals from the yield curve, it’s not unthinkable to feel a little panicked.

Still, strategists believe a recession is a far-fetched idea given the health of the U.S. economy.

As Quantum Strategies founder and strategist David Roach said, “The economy is great, thank you very much.”

Bob Parker, a senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund, said, “The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession at least in the fourth quarter of this year, and possibly even in the first quarter of next year, is close to zero.”

Specific numbers are driving market movements. But the underlying fear may be the opposite of what some of these numbers suggest.

–CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han and Jesse Pound contributed to this article.