December 24, 2024

OPIS's Tom Kloza says 2025 will 'definitely' be a problematic year for oil

U.S. crude oil was on track to gain for a second straight week on Friday as Israel prepared to retaliate against Iran.

Brent crude, the U.S. benchmark and global benchmark, gained about 1% this week. Oil prices have risen more than 10% as of Thursday’s close since Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles last week.

“Nonetheless, sustaining the bullish momentum in oil prices has proven to be a difficult task: without additional catalysts, the ‘war’ and ‘stimulus’ premium could easily fade,” said Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities strategy at JPMorgan, in a statement. told clients in a report on Friday.

Here are energy prices for Friday:

  • West Texas Intermediate Oil November contract: $75.31 per barrel, down 54 cents, or 0.71%. U.S. crude has gained about 5% so far this year.
  • Brent December contract: $78.91 per barrel, down 49 cents, or 0.62%. The global benchmark has gained more than 2% so far this year.
  • RBOB gasoline November contract: $2.151 per gallon, little changed. So far this year, gasoline leads by more than 2%.
  • natural gas November contract: $2.639/gallon, down 1.35%. Natural gas prices have risen nearly 5% so far this year.

According to media reports, Israel’s security cabinet held a meeting on Thursday to discuss the country’s response to the Iranian attack. U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone on Wednesday.

Traders worry that Israel will crack down on Iran’s oil industry, which could escalate tensions and cause serious supply disruptions in the Middle East. Biden dissuades Israel from targeting Iranian oil fields. Arab Gulf states are also reportedly lobbying the White House to pressure Israel not to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients: “We expect the White House may encourage Israel to target refineries rather than oil export facilities, believing Iran will be more The economic impact is felt directly.

However, Croft warned that U.S. influence may have waned since April, when Israel responded relatively mildly to Iran’s first missile and drone strikes.

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