Car batteries at a factory in Nanjing, east China’s Jiangsu Province.
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PARIS, France — The push to commercialize solid-state batteries for electric vehicles is well underway, but analysts say the auto giants may be on the cusp of pivoting to a different kind of transformative science.
Solid-state batteries have long been touted as “holy grailAs the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte made of materials such as ceramics.
This new generation of technology can theoretically hold more energy per unit volume than lithium-ion batteries. Supporters say it provides safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
Automakers have invested billions in solid-state battery research and are working with developers to produce their own versions for mass production.
On January 30, 2024, a sign was hung outside a Toyota Motor Corporation dealership in Tokyo, Japan.
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Take Japan’s Toyota Motor Corporation as an example explain The company aims to put solid-state batteries into mass production between 2027 and 2028. miles) charging time is only 10 minutes.
Japan Nissan explain In April this year, the company planned to launch solid-state batteries for electric vehicles in early 2029, while Germany’s Mercedes-Benz Group and American battery start-up Factory explain In September, they were collaborating to develop solid-state batteries that will be in production by the end of the decade. Factorial also has joint development agreements with automakers including Stellantis, Hyundai and Kia.
According to the Environmental Defense Fund, the average range of an electric vehicle in the United States on a single charge is nearly 300 miles (or 483 kilometers), and the time it takes to charge a battery-powered electric vehicle can take 20 minutes or a few hours, depending on the Speed of cars and charging points.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Max Reid said solid-state batteries are at the beginning of a long journey to commercialization.
“Obviously, the results look very promising — safer, higher energy density and especially the charging speed, which we think is probably one of the main benefits of solid state,” Reed told CNBC via video call.
However, despite growing hype over the potential launch of solid-state batteries, analysts remain skeptical about when they will actually hit the market.
semi-solid battery
Wood Mackenzie’s Reid said a major drawback of solid-state batteries is the expansion of the cells during charging and ultimately their degradation after heavy charging.
“Five years ago, if we were talking about this, I would have been very excited about solid-state batteries,” Julia Poliscanova, senior director of vehicles and electric vehicle supply chain at the Transportation and Environment Campaign, told CNBC in Paris said during the interview.
“But somehow, in this space between pilot and commercialization, there is some kind of barrier, some kind of barrier today, because every time I talk to automotive executives at battery conferences, I always hear the same answer : ‘We still have five to seven years.'”
“When you look at the current technology, lithium-ion batteries, they’ve just made a lot of progress. The incremental improvements in cheaper technology are so good that maybe putting all the focus on solid-state batteries is no longer the case. So attractive.
However, there may be another option: semi-solid-state batteries. The batteries use a hybrid design of solid and liquid electrolytes, and some analysts say they could act as a bridge between the two types of batteries.
Visitors visit the CATL booth at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show in China.
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Reed said semi-solid-state batteries have been commercialized in China “to a large extent” and “actually, I think, it’s a compromise technology that will actually eliminate the need for all-solid-state batteries.”
The development of semi-solid-state batteries is mainly led by Chinese companies, including CATL, one of the world’s largest battery manufacturers, as well as companies such as WeLion, Qingtao Energy and Ganfeng Lithium.
Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio has commercialized 150-kilowatt-hour semi-solid-state batteries for its electric vehicles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. In addition, Ganfeng Lithium Energy, a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, is producing semi-solid-state batteries for electric vehicles with a range of 530 kilometers.
Lithium batteries “still have a way to go”
The Ministry of Transport and Environment’s Poliskanova said she sees China making progress in semi-solid batteries “because whoever understands how to make a battery will always make the next battery.”
“I think low-cost innovation is getting more attention and commercialization than solid-state technology. It must be because in the vehicle space, the performance is good enough. Yes, we can talk about trucks and airplanes, but in the vehicle space On the road, 600 to 800 kilometers is enough.
Not everyone is convinced of the imminent shift to semi-solid-state batteries, or the hype surrounding the massive rollout of solid-state batteries in the coming years.
Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America Global Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk”: “The reality is, for now, when we look at the electric vehicle space, lithium-based batteries are still the way to go.
“That’s the backbone and it’s probably going to stay that way for the next five to 10 years,” he added.