With less than two weeks to go before the election, CNBC’s National Economic Survey shows the presidential race remains statistically close nationally and in key states, unchanged from the August survey, despite rising numbers among key groups There have been some significant changes.
Nationally, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 48%-46%, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error, unchanged from August. In seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, with the poll’s margin of error within 4%.
The survey was conducted from October 15 to 19, with a total national sample of 1,000 voters. The national sample includes 186 voters from battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition, 400 voters in these states were interviewed, resulting in a total sample of 586 voters from swing states.
Economic issues remain a top concern for voters, both at home and on the battlefield. Trump holds a commanding lead among voters who prioritize inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class. An increase of 42% to 24%, Voters say their financial situation will be better if Trump wins, and 29% say their financial situation will not change no matter who is elected. Trump’s approval rating is 13 percentage points higher among voters who say inflation, cost of living and the overall economy are top issues. Inflation remains a top issue throughout the election cycle.
Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey, said: “While the data shows that inflation has been slowing on paper, it has increased over the past three quarters. Become more important in people’s minds, not less important.
The survey also shows that Trump leads by 35 percentage points among voters who are most concerned about immigration issues, and by 19 percentage points on crime and security issues.
Harris has led the way on a variety of secondary issues, which are high-profile issues at a lower rate than the economy. These include Harris leading by 31 points among voters who care most about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care, and 60 points on climate change.
Trump’s favorability increases
The question facing Harris is whether combined support for these smaller issues is enough to overcome her deficit on the big economic issues. Statistically, the two candidates are tied in terms of who is better able to bring about positive change in the country.
Character issues appear to be keeping the race close. When respondents were asked who was mentally and physically fit to serve as president, Harris led by 13 points. She leads Trump by 10 points on who is more honest and trustworthy. However, both numbers showed an improvement in Trump’s approval rating compared to the NBC News poll in September.
Trump’s approval ratings have also improved. Since August, his net favorability rating is -13 points (plus or minus), which has improved to -6 nationally. Unfavorable views of Harris were only slightly less negative at -10 than August’s -8. (In the NBC poll, she rose to +3 in the September poll but now appears to have given up on post-convention gains.) Harris fared better in swing states, with a net favorability rating of -5, Tied with Trump.
CNBC National Economic Survey
Surveys show that the American electorate is divided along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some changes happening beneath the surface. The gender gap remains the most pronounced, but Trump’s net approval rating of +17 among men is higher than Vice President Harris’s +12 approval rating among women. Harris maintains a substantial 27-point lead among voters of color, but that’s down 10 points from August. She leads among voters of color in swing states by 38 points. Compared with August, Trump’s support improved among less educated and low-income voters, while Harris’ support among middle-class and affluent voters was better.
CNBC National Economic Survey
“Trump’s advantage is that he’s winning more men than he’s losing women,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which served as the Republican pollster for the survey. “That’s a difference because the advantage among younger men is large, whereas Harris’ advantage among younger women is less pronounced, especially older women.”
Harris leads nationally among women over 50 by 8 points, but is tied with Trump in battleground states.
Inflation remains a problem
Although officially calculated inflation has dropped significantly, CNBC’s survey shows Americans are not feeling it. Three-quarters of the public believe prices are still rising, with 45% saying prices are rising faster than before. Only 16% think prices have leveled off, and only 6% think prices are falling; only 7% think their incomes are growing faster than inflation, and 27% say they are growing at a rate of inflation. Still growing, 63% said their income was declining. At the same time, only 26% of people thought the economic situation was good or good, and 73% answered that it was fair or poor, a slight improvement from August.
However, 37% of the public think the economy will improve next year, the highest level in more than three years, an increase that typically occurs around elections and may have more to do with how Americans feel about the outcome than with related to their personal views.
Full survey results can be viewed here.
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