Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Erie Insurance Arena on October 14, 2024 in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Dustin Franz | AFP | Getty Images
Political gambling platform Polymarket’s apparent shift toward former President Donald Trump this month triggered scrutiny of four accounts that collectively spent more than $28 million betting on the Republican candidate to win the 2024 presidential election.
Polymarket confirmed some on Thursday expert have Suspect: All four accounts are controlled by one trader.
In a statement to CNBC, a spokesperson for the company said the whale was French and had “extensive trading experience and financial services background.”
The statement said the trader’s account was funded by a “well-known centralized cryptocurrency exchange,” which other media outlets identified as U.S.-based exchange Kraken.
The company insisted it found no evidence that the trader was trying to boost Trump’s odds in political betting markets.
Polymarket said that an investigation involving third-party experts “has so far found no information indicating that the user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market.”
The New York Times reported that General Market Statement Earlier Thursday morning, the company said it was working with investigative firm Nardello & Company.
The scrutiny of Polymarket’s trading comes as political betting markets take on a larger role in the 2024 election cycle.
Trump supporters touted Polymarket’s widening odds with Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing — though the shift differs from most national polls. Polls show a close race, well within the margin of error.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and one of Trump’s biggest financial backers in winning the White House, Assert on XThe social media platform he owns believes that betting markets are “more accurate than polls because the real money is in the stakes.”
In a statement on Thursday, Polymarket stressed that “prediction markets are not polls and they measure the likelihood of an event happening, not the percentage of people who intend to take action (such as voting on Election Day).”
“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation surrounding Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” the company said.
The accounts’ combined positions in presidential election bets were worth about $28.6 million as of Thursday morning, according to Polymarket data.
The four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – were among the top five holders of Polymarket’s bets on who would win the White House race on the pro-Trump side.
The trader’s account also bet more than $7 million that Trump would defeat Harris to win the popular vote.
Odds and betting platforms do not use the methods used by traditional political polls and therefore cannot replace political polls.
A Polymarket spokesman said it believed “this individual took a directional stance based on his or her personal views on the election.”
But the person “has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”
Following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, Polymarket is currently banned from US traders.
But another betting platform, Kalshi, released a new presidential election contract after a favorable ruling by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Interactive Brokers A number of political betting contracts were also launched.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is challenging Kalshey’s right to host those bets.
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