Auto insiders’ top questions for both candidates | Wilnesh News

DETROIT — The auto industry has become a key topic during the 2024 presidential election as Michigan — home to the Motor City and 1.1 million auto industry jobs — remains a key swing state.

Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump and their running mates and supporters have made Michigan their second home in recent weeks as campaigns try to win over undecided voters in the Great Lakes state. support.

Since 2008, whichever candidate wins the state has won the White House, including Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.

“Michigan’s 16 electoral votes helped propel Otto into the debate,” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note on Monday. There are deep divergences between hyperactive and contradictory pronouncements and Harris’ quieter views, but there are also convergences.

While major automakers and suppliers have been reluctant to publicly endorse either presidential candidate, several company executives and lobbyists spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss how they are building support for each candidate. and preparations for a potentially divided Congress.

Industry executives and policy experts say electric vehicles, trade, tariffs, China, emissions regulations and labor are top issues for automakers.

Officials expect Harris’ victory to be a continuation of Biden’s past four years in office, not a replication. They thought she might understand the business better, but there were concerns.

Experts say some of her policies and potential appointments are unclear, as is her stance with the United Auto Workers, particularly Union President Shawn Fain has been a combative foe of the automakers, which worries some.

Current requirements “Advanced Clean Vehicle II” The 2022 regulations require 35% of 2026-model vehicles (which will be rolled out starting next year) to be zero-emission vehicles. Battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and to some extent plug-in hybrid vehicles all meet zero-emission standards.

California Air Resources Board 12 states reported and Washington, D.C. have already adopted these rules; however, about half of owners will start with the 2027 model year. They are part of CARB’s advanced clean car regulations, which include mandating 100% of new car sales Zero-emission vehicles by 2035.

Starting this year, only 11 states and the District of Columbia have more than 10% EV market share, according to the agency. Automotive Innovation Alliance, Trade associations and lobbying groups representing most major automakers operating in the United States

Officials say many automakers will push to delay CARB authorization no matter who is in the White House. They also expect Trump to reduce or freeze corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), 2027-2031 style standards.

Several auto industry insiders said they expect Harris to reach a middle ground with automakers on such standards, in part as Biden has done.

Electric vehicles and U.S. policies to support them, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, are a top concern among auto industry executives and lobbyists. If Trump returns to power, regulations and incentives for electric vehicles could change significantly, putting the industry in a temporary bind.

Pablo Di Si, CEO of Volkswagen Group America, said at an Automotive News event on September 24: “Depending on what happens with the U.S. election, we may or may not get authorization. ” “Am I making any decisions now about future investments? Obviously not. We’re waiting to see.”

Transformation of electric vehicles from mass market What was a talking point for Democrats four years ago has become a rallying cry for Republicans.

Harris has not publicly expressed support for electric vehicles recently amid slower-than-expected adoption and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support electric vehicle mandates, e.g. Zero Emission Vehicle Act of 2019While she was a senator, she co-sponsored a bill that would have required automakers to sell electric vehicles by 2040.

sobriety group CEO Peter Rawlinson told CNBC on Monday that no matter which presidential candidate wins the election, he believes the U.S. electric vehicle industry is still in its infancy and needs to continue to be “nurtured.”

Rawlinson, whose company has the most efficient electric vehicles on sale, also believes the IRA should not only favor the size of the battery, as it currently does, but also the efficiency of the vehicle.

“This effectively incentivizes electric vehicles with high power consumption,” he said. “It actually creates an incentive to install more batteries and make them less efficient.”

Both Trump and Harris have expressed interest in reviewing the U.S. North American trade deal, formally known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, amid concerns about the global expansion of China’s auto industry.

The agreement replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) The bill was negotiated during Trump’s first term and took effect in 2020.

Harris is one of 10 U.S. senators supporting the deal despite Trump touting it as it renegotiates. Vote against USMCA then.

GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said last week that the automaker was “closely watching” the election, including how potential changes in trade and tariffs might impact the company.

“Regardless of the outcome of the election, we have been and will continue to engage constructively in the policy process. When you look at the number of jobs created in the United States, even though some of the vehicles are manufactured abroad, many of them are produced in our factories. “This is a very complicated situation. “

Tariffs are at the heart of Trump’s auto industry plan. He has said he would be willing to significantly raise tariffs to stop Chinese automakers from importing cars into the United States from Mexican factories.

Chinese automakers have not yet done so but are expected to experiment with this import method in the coming years as they expand sales and establish localized production plants in the country.

Harris reportedly calls Trump’s tariffs proposal “A sales tax on the American people.” The vice president has not yet outlined any specific changes she would make to the current tariff structure if elected, including Biden’s announcement to increase tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China from 25% to 100%.

Jefferies said a Harris win would appear to have a more positive impact on non-U.S. automakers, which together account for 48% of U.S. production and 52% of USMCA production.

Among the many issues surrounding the auto industry, officials who spoke to CNBC were nearly unanimous on labor issues: They worry that a Harris victory will continue to mean increased power for organized labor.

Biden and Harris followed, putting the UAW and union president Fein in the spotlight more than any former president in modern times. Speech at the Democratic National Convention.

United Auto Workers said last week Internal polling shows “Kamala Harris’ support for Donald Trump is growing stronger, with Harris’ lead over Trump growing significantly over the last month”.

Trump and Fein, meanwhile, have spent the past year criticizing each other as unions try to organize as many auto plants as possible after winning major contracts in negotiations with legacy Detroit automakers last year.

blue collar worker For example, UAW members He was seen as an important supporter of Trump’s first election as president, defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.

—CNBC Michael Bloom contributed to this report.