Stock market outlook for next week from November 4 to 8, 2024 | Wilnesh News
A divided or united government could be key to the stock market’s future performance following next week’s U.S. presidential election. The Nov. 5 election will remove key suspense for markets, which have struggled to accurately predict whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win. The latest NBC News poll shows the two contestants locked in a stalemate. However, the recent outperformance of financial stocks and the surge in bond yields suggest that the market is anticipating large tax cuts and larger deficit spending – patterns that point to a Trump victory. But for investors monitoring the election, the real impact may lie in which party controls Congress, not who wins the White House. The split in the U.S. House and Senate suggests the status quo is likely to persist, rather than a Democratic or Republican sweep leading to tougher reforms to tax and spending policies. The gridlock would help curb ballooning deficits that many believe are causing long-term interest rates to surge, threatening the bull market. “I think the best outcome for the market is a divided government,” said Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investment strategist at Hartford Funds. “In In this case, the market will rise and you will have a relief rally. “I’m not sure if there is any other outcome,” Abhoff-Jacobson added. .SPX YTD Mountain S&P 500 Trump’s recent trips to battleground states such as New Mexico, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in about 20 years, have underscored the importance of which party controls Congress. “Former President Trump comes to Albuquerque and you might be scratching your head and saying, ‘Why isn’t he in a swing state?’” Brian Burrell, president of Thornburg Investment Management Portfolio Manager, the company is headquartered in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “Well, you know, we’ve had some close House races in this state, and I think that shows you how important that aspect of political campaigns is,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who has a particular focus on the Senate , Republican control would likely mean that corporate tax increases would not pass in the event of a Harris win. “If we get some sense of what’s going on in the Senate, especially if the Republicans look like they’re going to take the Senate by Wednesday morning, that’s going to have a huge positive impact on markets because then the situation in the House and the President won’t be there either. Crucial,” Hatfield said. Historically, stocks tend to rise in the last two months of any year, especially in presidential election years when stocks strengthen prematurely like they have this year. But that doesn’t mean investors aren’t concerned that the election could be the catalyst for a correction in a market that many already consider overvalued and highly concentrated. Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel expects a Trump victory and a Republican sweep in Congress to be positive for stocks, saying it could lead to a “‘performance chase’ circuit breaker” that would push standards The S&P 500 topped 6,000 in a matter of days after the election and ended the year with numbers approaching 6,300. In fact, this is what the market is most concerned about right now, with the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rising more than 3% in the fourth quarter and the 10-year Treasury yield rising back above 4.3%. On the other hand, Evercore ISI’s Emanuel predicts that a Harris victory and a Democratic sweep in Congress could send the S&P 500 down to about 5,700 points. However, the broader index could still rise to 6,200 points by the end of the year. At the same time, any delay in the results could lead to increased market volatility, with many anticipating any dip in the market as a long-term buying opportunity. After all, they say, with inflation easing and the Fed in rate-cutting mode, the macroeconomic outlook remains intact. “I think high volatility or repricing events in the market are opportunities to increase long-term risk,” said Abhoff Jacobson of Hartford Funds. US10Y $1M U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Last Week 5. The major stock indexes kicked off November with strong momentum. But this comes after a challenging October for stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.3%. The S&P 500 fell 1% and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield last hovered above 4.3%. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and other aspects of the financial report. Federal Reserve policymakers will also hold a meeting in the coming week. Investors generally expect another 25 basis point interest rate cut at the end of Thursday’s meeting. The market last priced this possibility at 98%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. But people will pay more attention to Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks at the press conference, which may provide some clarity on what the Fed will do in the future and whether the central bank will cut interest rates again in December. The benchmark overnight lending rate, at which federal funds futures are currently priced, could fall to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year, down from the current 4.75% to 5.00% range, CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows. Earnings season continues, with about 100 S&P 500 companies confirmed to report earnings. Of the roughly 350 companies that have done so, about 75% have reported positive surprises, FactSet data shows. Elsewhere abroad, China’s National People’s Congress is expected to hold a much-anticipated meeting, with investors hoping for insight into any fiscal stimulus package. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will hold a meeting from November 4 to 8. One week ahead calendar all times are Eastern Time. Monday, Nov. 4 10 a.m. Durable Orders Final Results (September) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (September) Earnings: Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors NV Tuesday, Nov. 5 a.m. 8:30 Trade Balance (September) 9:45 am Final PMI Composite Index (October) 9:45 am Final S&P Services PMI (October) 10 am ISM Services PMI (October) Events: US Presidential Election Gains: Marathon Oil, Yum! Brands, Microchip Technology, Super Micro Computer There is no noteworthy economic data for Wednesday, November 6th. Earnings: CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Gilead Sciences, Take-Two Interactive Software, Marathon Oil, Match Group Thursday, November 7, 8:30 AM Continuing Jobless Claims (10/26) 8:30 AM First Unemployment Claims (11/02) 8:30 AM Preliminary Unit Labor Cost Report (Q3) 8:30 AM Preliminary Productivity Report (Q3) 10 AM Final Wholesale Inventory Report (September) 2 PM FOMC meeting 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (September) Earnings: PG&E, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Tapestry, The Hershey Co., Ralph Lauren, Warner Bros. Discovery, Airbnb, Axon Enterprise, Expedia Group, Akamai Technologies, Fortinet Michigan Sentiment Preliminary (November) Earnings Friday, Nov. 8, 10:00 AM: Paramount Global — CNBC’s Alex Harring contributed to this report.
