Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally (left) at Macomb Community College in Warren, Michigan, the United States, on November 1, 2024. Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, United States, October 19, 2024.
Reuters
A string of very good economic news over the past week could create a tough task for the next elected President of the United States: Don’t screw it up.
With just days to go before the Nov. 5 election, inflation is expected to cool further from its pandemic peak, private job creation is beating expectations, pending home sales data is rising, consumer sentiment is moving toward optimism, and gross domestic product is rising at a rapid pace Growth was slightly below some expectations.
The S&P 500 has gained more than 50% since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021 and is up 24% so far this year, according to Morning Consult.
“Remember how we were in a depression and stuff like that? Guess what? We have the strongest economy in the world. The whole damn world,” President Joe Biden said Tuesday at an event announcing new infrastructure funding at the Port of Baltimore. said.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both positioned themselves as the best stewards of the future health of the U.S. economy.
At the same time, both candidates are trying to position themselves as a departure from the status quo and recognize lingering voter dissatisfaction with the economy despite strong macro data.
An October survey showed that 44% of U.S. adult respondents said they believed a “total economic collapse” was at least somewhat likely, if not very likely. yugev polling. The poll, which surveyed 1,113 adult U.S. citizens from October 17 to 19, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Economic pessimism among voters has prompted Trump and Harris to launch a series of policy proposals promising a new economic future for Americans.
Trump has promised universal tariffs on all imports from all countries, a comprehensive immigration deportation plan, deeper corporate tax cuts and more.
Economists and even some of Trump’s own allies have pointed out that his proposed sweeping tariffs, mass deportations and tax cuts could deal a major shock to the economy, at least temporarily, triggering a potential market collapse.
At the same time, Harris wants to raise the corporate tax rate, enact a federal ban on companies “price gouging” in the grocery industry, and provide subsidies and tax credits for housing development, child care and other areas.
The vice president has been criticized by economists and corporate America leaders for his proposed ban on price gouging and his plan to raise corporate taxes.
Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, said a stable economy would provide the next president with an opportunity to really focus on the policies of his campaign.
In contrast, Wolfers said, both former Presidents Barack Obama and Biden took office at a time when “stabilizing the economy had to take precedence over their normal governing priorities.” “What they want to do is put out the recession fire, not continue with their plans.”
Wolfers said the current reality makes the presidential election even more important.
“If you’re in a recession, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, you have one job: fix the recession,” he said. “For example, if what Trump wants is to cut taxes for the rich and what Harris wants is to raise taxes on the rich in order to cut taxes for the middle class and the working class, then they may both be able to do that. a little.
Either way, the next president will have to strike a delicate balance: delivering on their promises to overhaul an economy that voters appear to loathe, while not derailing the current trajectory of real economic growth.
Biden must implement an economic rescue plan as the economy is devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic, giving him leeway to enact a massive stimulus bill and other sweeping policies to keep American families and businesses afloat.
As Biden prepares to leave the White House, strong economic data in recent weeks has bolstered his view that his administration, working with the Federal Reserve, has prevented a landing, even if Americans haven’t felt it yet.
Moody’s chief economist says: ‘Hard to see economy doing better’ Mark Zandi “Certainly, many low- and middle-income Americans are not benefiting as much as they should. Changing that is where the next president and Congress need to focus.”
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