Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater in North Las Vegas, Nevada on October 31, 2024.
Ethan Miller | Getty Images
A shocking new report shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among likely Iowa voters 47% to 44% polling It was released Saturday night, just three days before Election Day.
Harris’ advantage was within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error, but her lead reflected a 7-point increase in voter support for her since September.
The results of the Des Moines Register/MediaCom Iowa poll came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analysts predicted the Democratic nominee would defeat Trump in the state.
Neither candidate is campaigning in the state, where Trump has handily won the past two presidential elections since the primaries ended.
“It’s hard to say anyone saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Des Moines Register.
“She’s clearly jumped into the lead.”
Selzer & Co. surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from Monday through Thursday. Selzer’s firm is highly respected by pollsters, and her findings often have important implications for political strategists.
Harris’ lead in the polls comes from strong support from female voters, especially those who are older and politically independent.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Chronicle.
The poll found that 3% of respondents supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to support Trump. Kennedy is still on the ballot in Iowa.
The same poll in September showed Trump leading current Vice President Harris by 4 percentage points. In June, Trump led then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by 18 points.
Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.
The Republican campaign released a memorandum The poll was called an “outlier” on Saturday night.
The memo states that the new Emerson College A poll of likely Iowa voters released early Saturday showed Trump leading Harris 53% to 43%.
“The Des Moines Register is a clear anomaly,” the Trump campaign memo said. “The Emerson College poll released today more accurately reflects the reality of Iowa voters and is more transparent in its methodology.” .
About The Author
