Putin is sure to win, but the Kremlin wants a landslide | Wilnesh News

There are no surprises as to who will win this weekend’s Russian presidential election, with current President Vladimir Putin set to win a fifth term and stay in power until at least 2030.

The carefully orchestrated vote taking place from Friday to Sunday is not expected to bring any unpleasant surprises to the Kremlin, which told CNBC months ago that it was confident Putin would easily win the vote.

This is especially true in countries where Russian opposition figures do not appear on the ballot or in mainstream politics, and most activists have fled the country. Those who stayed found themselves arrested, jailed or died under mysterious circumstances, as was the case with jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The Kremlin denies any involvement in his death.

In the 2024 elections, there is no doubt who will win the vote; Putin’s name appears on the ballot together with three other candidates from Russia’s “systemic opposition”: Vladislav of the New People’s Party Davankov, the Liberal Democratic Party’s Leonid Slutsky and the Communist Party candidate Nikolay Kharitonov.

They are seen as symbolic political opponents whose parties generally support the government, and their inclusion on the ballot is intended to bring a level of respectability to the vote and provide a semblance of pluralism to Russia’s de facto authoritarian political system change.

Putin, who has been president or prime minister since late 1999, shows no sign that he is ready to relinquish control of the country. He is backed by a loyal inner circle and retains the support of Russia’s security services.

However, even candidates such as anti-war hopefuls Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, who represented only tiny representatives of the “non-systemic opposition,” were barred from running in the elections, reflecting the The Kremlin is nervous about possible chaos in the election. Central Election Commission of Russia. The ban is widely believed to be politically motivated.

Putin’s approval rating in Russia reached 86% in February, the highest level since 2016 According to the independent Levada CenterAlthough analysts such as Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center, point out that Putin’s “power model” relies heavily on two unstable pillars: “passive compliance and fear.”

Both factors have undoubtedly been amplified since Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022, and any criticism of Russia’s “special military operations” – portrayed as an honorable and patriotic defense of the Russian homeland – is likely to Causing citizens to go to jail.That An estimated 315,000 Russian soldiers were injured or killed in the conflict The Kremlin will not discuss the topic in public; Russia has not released death or casualty figures.

Analysts say the Kremlin hopes to see high turnout in the election – the first presidential vote in three days – and hopes for a major victory for Putin to legitimize the war.

Andreas Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe consultant at consultancy Teneo, commented on Thursday: “The Kremlin is seeking election results that would show overwhelming public support for Putin and his domestic and foreign policy agenda. . ”

“The Kremlin is using this election to reaffirm Putin’s legitimacy, mobilize public support for his policies and demonstrate unity and resolve to external opponents,” he added. The Kremlin seeks a “landslide victory.”

“According to official data, Putin received 77.5% of the valid votes in the 2018 presidential election, with a turnout of 67.5%. This year, both figures are likely to be higher,” he said.

“Putin will not face any real competition at the polls and, if necessary, electoral authorities can use a variety of tools to engineer the desired turnout and results. However, the preference is to produce results with as little disruption as possible,” he famous.

Kyiv has been harshly critical of this week’s votes in Crimea, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk.It has been previously reported that Coercion and illegal voting practices That included evidence of armed soldiers accompanying pro-Russian officials who went door-to-door with ballot boxes to collect votes.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said in a statement on Thursday Russia’s attempt to “imitate” the presidential election on its territory “demonstrates the Russian Federation’s continued blatant disregard for the norms and principles of international law”. It called the vote illegal and urged citizens in occupied areas not to take part.

The election was also condemned by Russian opposition activists, most of whom went into self-exile to avoid arrest, imprisonment or attacks.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, implored Russian voters to vote for “any candidate other than Putin” and called on citizens to vote on March 17, local time A collective vote was held at noon on the same day, with the intention of overwhelming the polling station. She also asked the West not to recognize the election results. Kremlin opponents have also called on supporters abroad to protest outside the Russian embassy this Sunday.

Dmitry Moskovich, an opposition activist and representative of the Russian Democratic Association in London, said the protests provided an opportunity for people to express their opposition to Putin and the war.

“When we talk about Russia, we are always talking about an authoritarian regime with almost no electoral freedoms, and we are talking about an election that was clearly and certainly falsified by the Russian authorities. ” he told CNBC on Thursday.

The Kremlin appears unconcerned with an ostensibly free and fair election, and analysts say the 2024 vote will be subject to far less scrutiny than past votes, reflecting Russia’s growing indifference to international democratic norms.

“Recent changes in Russian electoral law make any meaningful monitoring virtually impossible and severely limit the role of the media,” European Parliament policy analyst Anna Capriel said in an analysis on Wednesday.

“Vladimir Putin’s re-election seems inevitable. However, the Kremlin’s goal is not just victory, but an overwhelming result in turnout and vote percentage. This will make Putin’s legacy and His aggressive war legitimized the remaining opposition to a more marginalized role and allowed Putin to implement his vision without restraint for the next six years,” she noted.