What exactly a second term for President-elect Trump means for the stock market is a question that investors will continue to grapple with in the coming week. Nvidia’s profit results will also be announced as investors grapple with high interest rates. The post-election rally paused this week, with all three major stock indexes headed lower after a historic rally immediately following Trump’s victory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 44,000 points for the first time in history, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also set new records. Nonetheless, all three benchmarks are now off their highs. Many remain optimistic that recent momentum could push expensive stocks higher through the rest of the year and possibly even into Inauguration Day. But investors are trying to understand what will happen after the president-elect is sworn in, seeking clarification on some campaign promises, including tax cuts and tariffs, that could spur domestic economic growth but fuel inflation and potentially upend markets in the process. . “The real heavy lifting begins after Inauguration Day, and I think the market may start to get a little rougher then,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office. On Friday, all three major stock indexes were above their all-time highs. fell more than 2%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back to around 4.5% after spending much of the week at lower levels. .SPX 5D mountain S&P 500 Nvidia’s ‘Crazy’ Demand Nvidia will report next week, and expectations are high, especially after CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC’s “The Closing Bell: Overtime” last month that he was not optimistic about Blackwell. Demand for AI chips is “insane” – a word the CEO is unlikely to use lightly. In fact, what matters most to investors is not how good or bad the October quarter expectations are, but what information management can share about chip demand ahead of product launches. Blackwell and Grace Blackwell sales are expected to start showing up in results next year. Harsh Kumar, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, said he is bullish on the stock and expects it will have to significantly raise its price target next year. His current price target on the stock is $175, which is about 19% higher than Nvidia’s closing price on Thursday. NVDA 3M mountain Nvidia, 3 months “The Blackwell build was at the forefront of people’s minds,” Kumar said. “Blackwell will be missing in October. It will be available at a limited level in January and then it will really be available as Blackwell and Grace Blackwell starting in the April time frame. I agree with the backlog It should be crazy,” Kumar said: “(I’m) expecting something from Jason to say, … we’re going to sell out all of 2025. “There’s a new sheriff in town” For investors, the new administration could have greater influence over how they invest in the future, given the potential changes in nominations for a series of key government appointments this week. force. For example, shares of vaccine manufacturers fell Thursday after President-elect Donald Trump said he would nominate vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. On Thursday, Moderna shares closed down more than 5% and Novavax shares fell more than 7%. Ken Mahoney, chief executive of Mahoney Asset Management, has eschewed pharmaceuticals, which he expects will be “on the government’s radar.” “You’re better off not getting into an industry that might be subject to more regulation or, you know, a new sheriff in town, so to speak,” said Ken Mahoney. “We’re definitely going to stay away from those.” Instead, the investor said he was optimistic about the banking sector, another beneficiary of Trump’s deal. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF surged 11% this month. “There are definitely winners and losers here,” Mahoney said. Rockefeller’s Chang said something similar: “While we are fundamental investors—a lot of people say they just focus on companies, right?—you actually have to look more at policies, because I do think they are The era of fiscal dominance is important.” Interest Rate Outlook Investors are increasingly worried about the interest rate outlook. Although the Fed’s latest dot plot shows that the overnight lending rate will fall to 3.4% by the end of 2025 – a drop of more than a full percentage point from the current 4.50% to 4.75% – some recent economic signals and returns Trump’s arrival in the White House complicates the path forward. First, the latest consumer and producer price reports suggest that while the overall trend remains downward, the last mile of reducing price pressures to the Fed’s 2% target may be more challenging than previously expected. Moreover, Trump’s threat to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and at least 60% tariffs on China could trigger a global trade war and reignite inflation. “The economy is not slowing, core inflation is not cooling, and with the new administration’s threat to impose import tariffs over the next year a recipe for disaster, the deflationary trend in core commodity prices could be reversed over the next year.” FWDBONDS Chief Economist Chris Rupkey wrote this week. Investors are already recalibrating their expectations, with the market most recently pricing overnight lending rates in a range of 3.75% to 4.00% by the end of 2025, less than four cents below current levels, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool A quarter of a percent. That could mean pressure on bond markets, which investors are already watching closely. Some expect a retest of 5% for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which last hovered around 4.5%, could weigh on stocks and lead to a correction. U.S. Treasury yields soared this week after Chairman Jerome Powell said he was in no rush to lower interest rates given the strength of the U.S. economy. One week ahead calendar all times are Eastern Time. Monday, Nov. 18, 10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (November) Tuesday, Nov. 19, 8:30 a.m. Preliminary Building Permits (October) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (October) Gains: Walmart, Labor There were no major events for companies to profit on Wednesday, November 20: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, TJX, Target Thursday, November 21, 8:30 AM Continuing jobless claims (11/09) 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims (11/16) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (November) 10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (October) 10 a.m. Leading Indicators (October) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (November) ) Earnings: Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere Friday, Nov. 22 9:45 AM PMI Composite Preliminary (November) 9:45 AM S&P PMI Manufacturing (November) 9:45 AM S&P PMI Services (November) November) Michigan Sentiment Final Value (November) 10 a.m.
