China’s November Caixin Manufacturing PMI | Wilnesh News

Manufacturing activity among China’s smaller manufacturers continued to expand in November, a sign that the country’s recent stimulus measures have helped boost some sectors of its struggling economy. private investigation released on monday.

The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.5, exceeding the median forecast of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. It also marked the second month in a row that official data remained above the key 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

“The core of the latest developments in manufacturing conditions is the increase in the inflow of new business,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Think Tank.

Private surveys indicate that new orders received by Chinese manufacturers are growing at the fastest pace in more than three years. “The renewed growth in export orders also supports the growth of overall new orders,” Wang said.

This private instrument follows Official PMI dataData released on Saturday also showed that the country’s manufacturing activity expanded to 50.3 in November from 50.1 the previous month. The reading beat Reuters’ forecast of 50.2.

Compared with the official PMI survey, which usually polls large state-owned enterprises, the Caixin survey tends to cover more small and medium-sized enterprises as well as private companies.

Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said, “This rebound is an early sign that China’s manufacturing industry is stabilizing on the back of the stimulus package.” However, Ng stressed that it is important to evaluate the real estate market in the coming months. improvements and the scale of fiscal spending remain important.

“Better consumer and business confidence will be needed to bring about a more sustained rebound,” Ng told CNBC. “Price wars and tariffs may still be risks in 2025 due to fierce domestic competition and unfavorable external geopolitics.”

China’s economy has shown some tentative signs of recovery after launching a series of stimulus measures in late September. The world’s second-largest economy reported strong retail sales growth in October, beating Reuters expectations.

However, real estate investment fell by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, and national industrial profits also fell by 10% in October compared with the same period last year. Profits fell for the third consecutive month.

At a Politburo meeting in September, China’s top leaders stepped up efforts to boost economic growth, pledging to increase fiscal spending and stabilize the struggling real estate industry. The People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points to increase liquidity in the economy, thereby reducing the amount of cash reserves banks need to keep.

In early November, China also announced a five-year plan worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to address local government debt and said it would provide additional economic support next year.

However, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election has raised concerns about increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which could cripple its export industry.

“Ironically, the threat of U.S. tariffs may actually increase orders for Chinese exports in the short term, as U.S. companies are now rushing to secure orders before these tariffs take effect,” said China Economics Director Julian Evans-Pritchard. Julian Evans Pritchard said.

Pritchard added: “I think it’s also boosting the export sector, which is why we’re getting stronger manufacturing PMIs.”