Traders on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
This report comes from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Bank of Japan expected to keep interest rates unchanged
A CNBC survey found that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting from Wednesday to Thursday. Of the 24 economists surveyed, 13 believed the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December. The Bank of Japan last raised interest rates in July.
Chinese consumers slow down purchasing pace
China’s total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year-on-year in November National Bureau of Statistics Data released on Monday. This figure fell short of the 4.6% growth expected in a Reuters survey and was significantly lower than October’s 4.8% growth. Nonetheless, October sales were boosted by China’s Double Eleven shopping festival.
South Korean president impeached
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol was impeached on Saturday after 204 members of the National Assembly voted in favor of the motion. Prime Minister Han Deok-soo will act as president. On Sunday, Han Hanyu had a phone call with US President Biden, and the US Treasury Department said it would continue Monitor the market.
(PRO) Follow rates and prices
Interest rates and inflation are the focus this week. The Fed’s rate-setting meeting ends on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge because it reflects how consumers actually spend their money – will be released on Friday.
bottom line
The near-certain way to figure out where the market is going is to make a prediction and then ignore it.
this S&P 500 Index It likely fell 0.6% last week, snapping a three-week winning streak. But the stock is still up nearly 27% this year, breaking the 6,000 mark for the first time during its rise.
CNBC’s Pia Singh noted that this is well beyond what top financial strategists were predicting at the end of 2023. JPMorgan Chase Chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for example, expects the broad-based index to close at just 4,200 points this year. Even the most optimistic forecast, chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, has a target of 5,200. Oppenheimer – Has not captured the strong rally in stocks this year.
That’s why investors should take this with a grain of salt, even though market strategists expect the S&P to end 2025 at 6,630, according to the average forecast in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey. To be sure, there is positive sentiment among investors as Trump attaches great importance to the stock market as a barometer of his presidency, steadily easing monetary policy, and the prospect of lower corporate taxes.
But in the markets, as in life, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
As a result of Trump’s promised tariffs and the tit-for-tat trade war that will ensue, inflation could return, like measles and possibly polio in the United States. In fact, inflation has “looked a bit stagnant,” he said Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Still, despite my skepticism about predictions, if Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian has proven to be a prescient market forecaster. Imagine that by the end of 2025, the S&P will reach Subramanian’s target of 6,666.
—CNBC’s Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.
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