Total war, or measured revenge? | Wilnesh News

Iran and Israel, the two regional foes, are attacking and threatening each other — with Israel launching a “limited military strike” against Iran in the early hours of Friday morning, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Iranian media reported that three drones were shot down over the central city of Isfahan, while the Israeli government has yet to comment.

The region has been on edge, awaiting Israeli retaliation, after Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones into the Jewish state over the weekend, its first direct attack on Israeli territory, which was largely blocked by Israeli air defenses The interception resulted in no fatalities. Tehran said the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of an Iranian diplomatic residence on April 1, which killed two senior Iranian generals and others.

Markets reacted immediately to the latest attack, with oil prices rising more than 3% in early Asian trading, while U.S. stock futures fell on concerns about a wider Middle East war.

Israel and Iran locked in decades of regional proxy war, with tensions rising in bloody process The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, It is now the seventh month. Iran-backed militant groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, have attacked Israeli territory and shipping assets, while Israel has assassinated Iranian leaders and their proxies in the region.

But a full-scale conventional war would cause a devastating blow to both sides and seriously undermine stability in the Middle East.

What happens next may now depend on Iran’s response — and then Israel’s, and so on. Are these tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran clear evidence of all-out war, or are they carefully planned retaliatory strikes?

The two most heavily armed countries in the Middle East have vowed to respond forcefully and decisively to attacks by their rivals, while other leaders in the region have called for de-escalation.

Israel Sunday Pledge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that only Israel can decide when and how to respond to Iranian drone and missile attacks, dismissing calls from Western allies for restraint.

The scale of Israel’s response may also depend on whether it has U.S. support.Although Washington has Made an “ironclad” commitment In support of Israel, President Joe Biden also reportedly told Netanyahu that the United States would not engage in any offensive military action against Iran.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi warned that even the “minimal” intrusion on its borders would trigger a “massive and harsh” response.

Clay Siegel, director of global oil services at Rapidan Energy Group, believes the line to all-out war has now been crossed. He told CNBC’s “Capital Wire” program on Friday: “Israel carried out a clear strike against Iran today in retaliation for Iran’s attack on Israel last Sunday, and we are now facing a direct hot war between states. .

“The ‘Shadow War’ chapter has ended.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed, telling CNBC’s Dan Murphy that hostilities have escalated to a new level. “I think this was a decision made by Iran in response to what they said was Israel’s killing of Iranian generals in Damascus… They declared war on Israel, there’s no doubt about it,” Olmert said on Tuesday.

However, not everyone agrees that the line into the wider war has been crossed.

Military analysts pointed out that Israel’s attack on Iran was obviously limited, and that Tehran’s Saturday night attack on Israel was preceded by several hours of warning via telegram, allowing Israel’s military and civilians to prepare for air defense and shelter. fully prepare.

“Iran’s attack was designed to be easily intercepted and reset,” Ian Bremmer, CEO of political risk firm Eurasia Group, wrote in a post on Deterrence standard.

Michael Singer, the former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s actions represented “slow, sweeping, and ultimately unsuccessful retaliation.”

Some analysts echoed the same reaction to this morning’s Israeli retaliation.

“I think at this point, the headlines are suggesting to us that this is an escalation of attacks – but if we’re honest, (considering) the list of retaliatory strikes that Israel could use after Iran attacked Israeli territory over the weekend – it’s “It’s not the most escalating path they could have taken,” Rob Casey, partner and senior analyst at Signum Global Advisors, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Friday. “

The Israeli attack “is very clearly a kinetic attack on Iranian territory… But that being said, the information we have now indicates that there were no casualties, or at least there have been no casualties so far, and no significant damage to Iran” Casey said “nuclear facilities” were located in the target area.

In fact, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not damaged.

He noted that while it was difficult to assess whether the Israeli attack was “proportionate” to Iran’s weekend attack, neither appeared to have caused any casualties or significant damage.

“This does not appear to be the apparent escalation of the strike that some had feared.”

Within hours of the Israeli attack, risk assets had begun to retreat, International oil benchmark Brent crude oil After a brief spike, the session turned lower.