The Huaneng Huaiyin power station in Huaian, China, on Nov. 12, 2023.
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China and India are not reducing coal power generation, making it harder for Asia’s largest carbon emitters to meet their climate goals, a new study shows.
While both Asian countries have ambitious plans to reduce emissions, heavy reliance on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, remains the most reliable and affordable way to meet growing electricity demand.
Over the past 20 years, global coal power generation has continued to grow, almost doubling from 5,809 TWh in 2000 to 10,434 TWh in 2023. Research from energy think tank Ember established. Research shows that the highest increases are in China (+319 TWh) and India (+100 TWh).
According to the International Energy Agency, coal remains the largest source of electricity generation, supplying more than a third of the world’s electricity. Until new technologies emerge, it will continue to play a key role in industries such as steel.
“It’s going to be very difficult to achieve the target without a rapid reduction in coal production. It’s certainly out of reach,” said Frances Johnson, senior researcher and climate lead at the Stockholm Environment Institute’s Asia Centre.
“We are not phasing out coal fast enough,” he warned.
China
Asia’s largest economy has two major climate goals:Carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality in 2060.
The East Asian country’s electricity demand has increased sevenfold since the start of this century, while coal demand has increased more than fivefold over the same period, Ember’s research shows.
China is the world’s largest coal producer, with carbon dioxide emissions from power generation reaching 5.491 billion tons in 2023.
Just because you reduce coal emissions doesn’t mean you can avoid emissions from other industries
Frances Johnson
Senior Researcher and Climate Director, Stockholm Environment Institute
However, the energy think tank said China has made significant progress in the development of renewable energy, causing emissions growth to slow from an annual average of 9% from 2001 to 2015 to an annual average of 4.4% from 2016 to 2023.
Dave Jones, director of global insights projects at Ember, told CNBC: “China is very close to its emissions peak and the clean energy transition is progressing very quickly.”
“Even with very high levels of electricity demand growth, the level of growth in renewables appears to be sufficient,” Jones said.
An excavator transfers coal at a coal terminal in east China’s Jiangsu province on January 22, 2024.
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The Ember report shows that clean electricity accounts for 35% of China’s total power generation. Hydropower – its second largest energy source – accounts for 13% of this, while wind and solar combined will reach a new high of 16% in 2023.
“If wind and solar power generation had not increased since 2015 and coal had been used to meet demand, emissions would have increased by 20% by 2023,” the report highlights, adding that these two energy sources can now generate enough of electricity to power Japan.
But Johnson of the Stockholm Environment Institute warned that China still needs to reduce its reliance on other forms of fossil fuels.
He pointed out: “The gradual reduction of coal emissions is absolutely necessary, but it is not enough. Just because you reduce coal emissions, it does not mean that you can avoid emissions from other industries.”
India
Last year, when India became the world’s most populous country, electricity demand increased by 5.4% compared with 2022.
National leaders optimistic about its performance The road to net zeromaking the bold claim that 50% of its electricity generation will come from non-fossil fuel forms by 2030.
Emissions from the power sector are expected to peak around 2030, while total energy-related emissions will reach their highest levels around 2034, Climate Action Tracker estimated.
On March 21, 2024, the Tuticorin Thermal Power Station in Tuticorin, India.
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But the added pressure of the drought has forced the country to generate 78% of its electricity from fossil fuels, with coal accounting for 75% of that, Ember research shows.
Like China, India has made significant progress in other forms of renewable energy.
According to Ember, by 2023, India will overtake Japan and become the world’s third largest solar power producer.
Ember found that total solar power generation in India was 113 terawatt hours (TWh) last year, a 145% increase since 2019.
“When you talk about China and India’s path to carbon neutrality, you would expect emissions to increase as demand grows. But at some point, GDP growth needs to decouple from emissions, and we need it to peak first, And then it went down,” Aditya Lolla, Ember’s Asia program director, told CNBC.
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