Russian President Vladimir Putin walks past the guard of honor during his meeting with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel in Moscow, Russia, on May 9, 2024.
Maxim Shemetov | Reuters
A government reshuffle was always a possibility after Russian President Vladimir Putin was sworn in as Russia’s fifth leader last week.
But Putin’s replacement of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu was a surprise, and his choice of successor, civilian economist Andrei Belousov, was even more surprising.
Belousov is a technocrat who has served in various positions in the Russian government, including economic development minister and deputy prime minister. His appointment is bound to attract attention in the military community, but it comes at a time when defense spending has surged and Putin has The country and the country are well prepared.
The appointment of an economist to the defense ministry is therefore widely seen as a way to align Russia’s huge defense needs with its booming war-based economy and military-industrial complex.
Analysts at the institute said: “These high-level reshuffles following Russia’s presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps to mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base in support of Ukraine’s protracted war and potentially prepare for a future confrontation with NATO. Be prepared.
Russia’s incoming Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
The analyst at the Washington think tank noted that Belousov’s lack of military experience is not unusual because his predecessor Shoigu also had no military experience. Instead, ISW noted, the Kremlin likely wants Belousov to “integrate and streamline” Russia’s defense industrial base with the country’s broader domestic economic policies.
ISW said: “Belousov served as Minister of Economy in the Russian government for nearly a decade and more recently was involved in managing various domestic defense industrial base innovation and drone projects, which prepared him well to lead Russia’s troubled defense agency. fully prepared.
The analyst added: “Belousov has a reputation as an efficient technocrat and inside sources say he has a positive relationship with Putin.”
Need for “innovation”
Russian forces continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine and last week launched a new offensive in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Russia is widely seen as trying to seize as much territory as possible before billions of dollars in new U.S. military aid reaches exhausted troops on the battlefields of Ukraine. The change in Russia’s defense leadership is interesting for its timing, given that the Russian military has taken the initiative in recent months, as it comes at a potentially critical moment in the war.
Analysts said Russia’s fate in Ukraine may prompt Putin to make changes now, but the Kremlin also pointed to the need to adapt and evolve, with Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov saying the appointment of a civilian Being Secretary of Defense is rooted in the need to “innovate.”
“On today’s battlefield, the winner is the one who is more open to innovation… Therefore, at this stage, the president has decided to appoint a civilian as defense minister,” the Peskov news agency said. TASS reports.
In this group photo released by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Ural Vehicle Plant in Nizhny Tagil, the country’s main vehicle plant in the Ural Mountains, on February 15, 2024 Tank factory.
Ramil Siddikov | AFP | Getty Images
Russian analysts emphasize that Belousov has nothing to do with Russia’s military tactics and strategy in Ukraine in any case. This task mainly falls on the shoulders of Russia’s top general and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. , he will remain in office.
“First of all, Belousov will not manage military combat,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of the analytics firm R.Politik, told CNBC on Monday. He will not be involved in military planning tactics.
“Belousov’s main goal is to ensure (Russia’s) military needs in terms of weapons. This is Putin’s main motivation for making this personnel decision. Belousov is keen on innovation in military technology and military industry,” she says.
Russian S-400 air defense system troops drive along Red Square during a rehearsal of a military parade commemorating the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II in central Moscow, Russia, May 5, 2024.
Maxim Shemetov | Reuters
“Putin therefore believes that if he makes Belousov the defense minister, he will be in a better situation with regard to the supply of weapons to the army. In this sense, this appointment is not surprising, ” Tanovaya said.
Why did Shoigu leave?
The Kremlin announced on Sunday that Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister since 2012, had been relieved of his duties and would become Russia’s influential Security Council secretary. The Kremlin said he would replace Nikolay Patrushev, a Kremlin ideologue and close ally of Putin’s, who would have a different role there.
Shoigu had no military experience before being appointed defense minister, and his credentials were tested when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and were often found wanting.
Some Russian military commentators and officials, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, have criticized Russia’s military strategy and leadership in Ukraine, which often comes at huge cost. Personal cost.
Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash last August following a brief but ill-fated rebellion against Russia’s military leadership. Although the Kremlin denied any involvement in his death, as the dispute unfolded, Putin appeared to support Shoigu over his old colleague Prigozhin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Cutting-edge Weapons Exhibition 2023, accompanied by Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defense Valery Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu after an enlarged meeting of the Defense Council. December 19, Defense Control Center in Moscow, Russia.
Mikhail Klementiev | Sputnik | Reuters
Another factor that may influence Putin’s decision-making is that Shoigu is increasingly unpopular with Russia’s military-industrial complex. He has publicly blamed weapons manufacturers for sluggish production and is considered an unpopular figure with the Russian armed forces.
“Shaoigu has many weaknesses,” noted R.Politik’s Stanovaya. “One of them is the conflict with (Russian state-owned defense group) Rostec.”
“Shoigu complained a lot about the way military facilities produce weapons. For Shoigu, production was too slow and the quality was not good enough… I think the fact that there was no agreement between the Ministry of Defense and Rostec made Putin Troubled, he wanted to build an effective (alliance).
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