President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Seyyed Ibrahim Raisi meets with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the United Nations Headquarters.
Lev Ladin | Light Rocket | Getty Images
The sudden death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has plunged Tehran into new uncertainty at a time when it is already facing a severe economic recession, popular discontent and war.
President Lacey’s helicopter suffered a hard landing He returned from Azerbaijan on Sunday amid poor weather conditions, Iranian state media reported on Monday. Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amirabdullahian also died in the accident.
Now, all eyes are focused on the next development of this Middle Eastern powerhouse. Houthi armed forces in Yemen.
Some analysts expect a considerable degree of continuity, while also noting that it could provide an opportunity for Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to gain greater control over the country’s political direction.
Elected in the summer of 2021 amid the lowest voter turnout in Iran’s national elections, Raisi is a hard-right right-winger seen as a potential successor to the Islamic Republic’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His death now sets in motion a predetermined succession process that empowers current Vice President Mohamed Mokhbel to serve as interim president and hold elections within the next 50 days.
Iran’s elections deemed unfree, Because the powerful and ultra-conservative Guardian Council ultimately decides who gets to vote.
“What we’ve seen over the past few years is really a power struggle between the IRGC and other conservative factions,” Argus Media Middle East Gulf editor Nader Itayim told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Monday.
Itaim said that during the next 50 days of the interim president’s term, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran’s top powers “will remain unchanged and may even increase.” “An interim president’s term … could pave the way for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to have more control over policy.”
Relations with Israel and the United States
But Itaim said it was crucial that “Iran will not change course just because of this” when it comes to foreign and domestic policy.
“When it comes to relations with the United States and potentially Israel, nothing is really going to change there. There are broader issues between these countries that are likely to persist, and those are deep-rooted issues.”
Iran has refused to establish formal diplomatic relations with the United States or recognize the state of Israel for decades and still faces pressure from severe U.S. and Western sanctions. Efforts to make progress in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal have repeatedly failed during Joe Biden’s presidency. Israel and Iran have carried out missile and drone attacks in Israel’s war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip, straining the region and fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
Sanan Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said Raisi’s death “comes at a difficult time for Iran” but that the world should still expect continuity because the Iranian presidency is not a country Where power truly lies.
“Theoretically, the president is the second most powerful person in the Iranian country, but he does not have the independence and maneuverability that the president and many Western democracies have. He serves at the behest of Iran’s supreme leader,” Vakil said on Monday .
“He also has no independent foreign policy decision-making power,” she added. “So his death was really more about filling his shoes and finding someone to step up and step in to maintain cohesion within the system.”
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