The impact of China’s war exercises around Taiwan | Wilnesh News

Political observers say China’s recent military drills around Taiwan could escalate cross-strait tensions, but war remains unlikely.

Beijing warned that the two-day drills, which continued on Friday, were aimed at punishing Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te.hostility and provocation”.

The situation escalated just days after Jimmy Lai was sworn in on Monday. In his inauguration speech, Lai strongly urged China to cease political and military threats to the self-ruled island.

China’s state news agency Xinhua News Agency In his first speech, Taiwan’s new leader stated that he had adopted “a more risky and radical approach than his predecessor.” The exercise is “legal, timely and completely necessary” and any form of “Taiwan independence” behavior is “intolerable.”

“This feels like a prelude to more and larger military exercises in the future,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center. Posts on X.

“This is a signal that shapes the international narrative. The real ‘punishment’ for Taiwan may not come yet because it takes time.”

Beijing considers democratically governed Taiwan to be part of its territory, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has previously said It is said to be unified with the mainland It is a “historical necessity”.

China’s Ministry of National Defense stated that the exercise Known as “United Sword-2024A”It is a “powerful punishment” for “separatist forces seeking ‘independence'”.

The exercise will focus on “jointly seizing comprehensive control of the battlefield and jointly striking key targets with precision.”

China’s The PLA Eastern Theater Command also stated that It conducts sea attack, land attack, air defense and anti-submarine warfare in the air and sea areas north and south of the island of Taiwan.

In response, Taiwan is on high alert Its Coast Guard also dispatches patrol boats to monitor Chinese military operations.

Political observers stressed that the latest escalation sends a political signal that Beijing may become tougher on Taiwan under Lai – whom China calls “Stubborn Taiwanese independence worker” and a dangerous separatist.

Eurasian analysts said that while pre-inauguration signals suggested a more conciliatory response, “Beijing seemed shocked by Lai’s affirmative language on Taiwan’s sovereignty and identity.”

In a speech on Monday, Jimmy Lai said Taiwan’s constitution clearly stipulates that the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) and the People’s Republic of China “are not affiliated with each other.”

He added that all political parties should oppose “annexation and protect sovereignty”.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi criticized Jimmy Lai on Tuesday, saying “no matter what tricks they play, they can’t prevent China’s eventual complete reunification.” official media reported.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense condemns China’s military drills “Unreasonable provocation” Undermining regional peace and stability.

The Ministry of National Defense stated that conducting military exercises under such an excuse will not only not contribute to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, but will also highlight its hegemonic nature.

Eurasian analysts noted that while the PLA’s drills have not yet reached the level of China’s response to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, the drills feature the Coast Guard’s presence on several offshore islands controlled by Taiwan There were unprecedented patrols around.

They said: “This week, Fujian Coast Guard ships patrolled 2.8 nautical miles and 3 nautical miles away from Wuqiu Island and Dongyin Island respectively, entering their ‘forbidden seas’ for the first time.”

Under Xi Jinping, China has stepped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan as informal ties with the United States tighten.

Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Summit in November that Taiwan has always been “most important and sensitive“Problems” in Sino-U.S. relations.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director of Teneo Intelligence, pointed out that U.S. politics will also affect cross-strait relations.

He added: “If Republicans win control of both houses of Congress in the November elections, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential race, tensions are likely to intensify further.”

Additionally, Wildau noted that as Jimmy Lai becomes more confident in his new role as president, he may “become bolder,” further departing from the relatively cautious stance of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen and “following his pro-independence act instinctively.”

Observers say that while a Taiwan war is unlikely over the next decade, the frequency and intensity with which Beijing deploys these familiar military tools is likely to increase.

Eurasian analysts said the latest drills showed cross-strait relations had entered an “unstable period.”

But they added that Beijing may “cease actions that could jeopardize Sino-US stabilization efforts on Taiwan, at least until the US election”.