Nigel Farage, honorary chairman and newly appointed leader of the right-wing populist party Reform UK, speaks at a campaign meeting ahead of the UK general election on July 4, 2024. Said on June 3, 2024 that he would run in next month’s UK general election as the candidate of the anti-immigration reform British Party, after initially ruling out running.
Henry Nichols | AFP | Getty Images
LONDON – Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage’s shocking return to politics could put the final nail in the coffin for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservative Party, which The party is almost certain to lose in the upcoming UK general election.
Farage announced on Monday that he would run in the UK’s July 4 general election, less than two weeks after saying he would not run as a parliamentary candidate to focus on supporting his friend and ally Donald Trump in the US presidential race. Trump.
Eurosceptic Farage said he would lead his right-wing Reform Party, formerly known as the Brexit Party, and run for a seat in Clacton, a town on England’s east coast, where his carefully crafted campaign to leave the European Union has received huge support. in the 2016 EU referendum.
The return of the politician-turned-media personality has added momentum to the rebel party. But crucially, it risks depriving the Conservatives, which already trail the opposition Labor Party significantly in opinion polls, of crucial votes.
“Even if the Reform Party doesn’t win seats, they will take key votes away from the Conservatives,” Olivia O’Sullivan, director of Chatham House’s Britain and the World program, told CNBC by phone.
Newest modelingThe news comes shortly after Farage’s announcement, which saw Labor win 220 seats while the Tories lost 225, putting Labor on course for a historic victory that would be even better than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. An overwhelming victory is even greater. That would give Labor leader Keir Starmer a majority of 422 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons.
Farage admitted on Monday that Labor had effectively won the election, but said he felt he would “betray” voters if he did not offer them a viable right-wing option.
Tony Travers, a professor at the London School of Economics, said the move marked a key step in Farage’s goal of pushing the Conservative Party further to the right or wiping it out entirely.
“The aim is to seriously hurt the Conservatives and give his Reform Party a chance to replace them, or for a new version of the Conservatives to re-emerge and dominate with their views,” he told CNBC.
Conservative Party “extinct”
Farage is hostile to the Conservative Party. At the 2019 election, the then-Brexit Party agreed not to field candidates in hundreds of seats to ensure a Conservative win. However, he has since accused the party of failing to deliver political rights and said on Monday it was time to “revolt”.
“What I am really calling for – or what I intend to lead – is a political revolt,” he told an “urgent” news conference in London.
The number of seats will most likely be less than 100. Then this is a potential extinction event.
Philip Brand
Director of Public Research Center
The announcement marks a major blow to Sunak’s earlier efforts to win right-wing votes by hardening the Conservative Party’s stance on immigration and Britain’s accession to the European Convention on Human Rights. Recent announcements about the reintroduction of compulsory military service, pensioner tax protection and a new gender definition are also seen as attempts to attract potential reform voters.
“He faces nightmare problems,” Travers said of Sunak. “This is effectively an admission that the Conservatives are not going to win over fringe voters.”
Indeed, Phillip Blond, director of the independent, non-partisan public policy think tank ResPublica, said the recent developments could mark a “clearing of territory” for the Conservatives, who could lose the ground they need to continue to be a credible opposition party. seats.
“It’s pretty extreme,” Kim told CNBC. “The possibility of them (the Conservatives) falling below 100 seats is very real. Then that’s a potential extinction event.”
new conservative leader
The electoral upheaval is just the latest in a series of scandals for the Conservative Party, which has had five prime ministers in its 14 years in power.
Travers, one of the world’s longest-running and most successful political parties, said predictions of disappearing elections may be exaggerated. “History shows that the Conservative Party will find a path to recovery,” he said.
However, questions remain about who can lead the Conservatives to rise from the ashes.
Farage said he would “never say never” at the prospect of joining a “reset and recalibrate” Conservative Party. Brand said it was “entirely possible” the 60-year-old would end up leading a severely weakened Conservative Party.
“There may be one or two leading figures, but it’s conceivable that the Conservatives are so low in the public mind that they think ‘Who can unify the right?’ The answer can only be Farage,” King said.
Although controversial, Farage is seen as a nimble political manipulator who heralded the rise of populist politics in the West in the 2010s. Recent YouGov polling He was found to be the most popular politician in the UK, ahead of Starmer in fourth and Sunak in 20th.
Sunak and Starmer will face off later on Tuesday in the first of a series of live TV debates ahead of next month’s election.
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