People sit near a television as news footage shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (right) greeting Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport at Seoul train station on June 19, 2024.
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Even the long wait for Russian President Vladimir Putin to arrive in Pyongyang early Wednesday morning was not enough to dampen Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for his “comrades.”
Shortly before 3 a.m., Putin was waiting on the runway to get off the plane. local time, A few hours behind scheduleNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un smiles as he shakes hands and hugs his Russian counterpart. North Korea’s state news agency KCNA said Kim “could not contain his joy” at the “touching reunion”.
As a large motorcade escorted the leader into the capital, streets lined with Russian flags and portraits of Putin, Kim praised the “historic” moment – Putin’s first and now rare visit to North Korea in 24 years of overseas visits.
A grand welcome ceremony was held on Wednesday morning, with tens of thousands of North Koreans lining the streets cheering to celebrate Putin’s visit, with the Russian leader thanking North Korea for its “consistent and wavering support for Russian policies, including in Ukraine.” direction.
In this group photo released by the Russian state agency Sputnik, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Pyongyang early June 19, 2024.
Gavriel Grigorov | AFP | Getty Images
Putin also said that the two countries could sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” during the visit, indicating that this is not just a friendly state visit aimed at consolidating diplomatic relations, but an exchange for expanding mutually beneficial strategic transactions between the two countries.
What can North Korea get from Putin?
On the surface, North Korea appears to be a supplicant in relations with Russia, but Pyongyang has an ace up its sleeve over Moscow, at least for now: It can provide Moscow with millions of artillery pieces and short-range ballistic missiles. missile.
Western officials accuse North Korea of circumventing international sanctions by transferring munitions and missiles to Russia, although Pyongyang denies that any such arms transfers have taken place. In return, analysts say, Russia may provide North Korea with food, fuel and military technology for satellites and submarines.
“North Korea certainly sees its own great opportunity in Russia’s isolation from the world,” Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratford Center for Applied Geopolitics, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“North Korea has long been heavily dependent on China, and even if Russia could get 5-10% of North Korea’s trade, that would be a big benefit to the North Koreans. The Russians are (also) discussing ways for both countries to circumvent Western sanctions. and financial restrictions could bring new economic activity to North Korea, not only with Russia but potentially internationally,” he said.
Preparing to roll out the red carpet… Workers carry carpets during a rehearsal for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s welcome ceremony in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 18, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to arrive in North Korea for a two-day visit.
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Teneo Consultants Vice President James Brady and Senior Advisor Victor Cha said the first order of quid pro quo for Kim would be to require the transfer of new advanced military technology.
“It’s unclear how much Putin is willing to pay, but Kim Jong Un’s wish list includes technology related to advanced telemetry, nuclear-powered submarines, military satellites and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russian technology may have contributed to Pyongyang’s first successful military spy launch in November Satellite 2023 – just two months after the last Putin-Kim summit,” they said in a report on Tuesday.
Kim Jong Un may also try to use a “high-water mark” in the relationship, seeking a new bilateral security partnership agreement similar to the mutual defense treaty signed by North Korea and the Soviet Union in 1961, which remained in effect until about 1990.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin walk past children during a welcome ceremony at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, June 19, 2024.
Gavriel Grigorov | AFP | Getty Images
It is not surprising that Kim Jong Un is proud to show his people and the world that he has a powerful friend in Putin. North Korea is isolated on the global geopolitical stage and is under severe sanctions over its nuclear weapons program and missile tests. It is widely viewed by the West as a “pariah” and “rogue” state.
While the streets of Pyongyang sparkle with Putin’s arrival, the harsh reality in North Korea is that abject poverty and food and fuel shortages are commonplace for the majority of the population living under the Kim dynasty’s totalitarian rule.
Brady and Cha said: “In addition to practical results, the visit also raised Kim Jong Un’s profile and allowed him to play the role of a statesman in front of domestic and international audiences.”
What did Russia gain?
While North Korea and Russia may currently praise the depth and strength of their relationship, the fact that Putin has not visited the country in the past 24 years speaks volumes.
In this group photo released by Russian state news agency Sputnik, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (left) walks with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a welcome ceremony for Putin’s arrival in Pyongyang early June 19, 2024.
Gavriel Grigorov | AFP | Getty Images
However, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s status and priorities have changed. Its isolation from the West has become increasingly severe, while its pivot toward the East has accelerated in search of allies and customers for its oil and commodities.
Meanwhile, at home, Russia’s military-industrial complex is already on a war footing, although analysts say it still faces shortfalls in monthly production capacity and spending on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said that even if Russia goes all out to produce ammunition for victory in Ukraine, Putin will need Kim Jong Un’s weapons to make up for the 50,000 rounds monthly ammunition gap. noticed on monday.
North Korea therefore provides Russia with another source of military hardware. U.S. officials claim Pyongyang provided weapons to Russia, although both sides deny arms transfers Provided dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 containers of ammunition to the war in Ukraine.
“The nature of the visit makes it unlikely that all results will be made public, but the goals of both sides are clear. For Putin, the key goal is to ensure the continued supply of weapons and ammunition to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Teneo’s Brady and Cha said.
“Joint production agreements for multiple types of munitions are likely, as well as orders for more ballistic missiles. The urgent need for military supplies has changed the dynamics of the bilateral relationship over the past two years, making Pyongyang a more valuable partner for Moscow.”
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