China and US hold first informal nuclear talks in five years: Reuters | Wilnesh News

The United States and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks in March for the first time in five years, with Beijing representatives telling their American counterparts they would not resort to atomic threats against Taiwan, according to two U.S. representatives who attended the meeting.

The Chinese representative’s assurances come after U.S. interlocutors raised concerns that China could use or threaten to use nuclear weapons if it failed in a conflict over Taiwan. Beijing considers the democratically governed island its territory, but Taipei’s government rejects that claim.

“They told the U.S. they were absolutely confident they could win a conventional battle over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons,” said David Santoro, a scholar and U.S. organizer of the Track 2 talks. Details of the talks are being reported.

Participants in Track Two talks are often former officials and academics who can authoritatively express the government’s position even if they are not directly involved in formulating it. Intergovernmental negotiations are called Track One.

About a half-dozen representatives from Washington, including former officials and academics, attended the two-day discussion in a Shanghai hotel conference room.

Beijing sent a delegation of academics and analysts, including several former People’s Liberation Army officers.

A U.S. State Department spokesman said in response to questions from Reuters that Track 2 talks could be “useful.” The spokesman said that although the department was aware of the situation, it did not attend the March meeting.

The spokesperson said that such discussions cannot replace formal negotiations, which “require participants to speak authoritatively on issues that are highly polarizing within the (Chinese) government.”

Members of the Chinese delegation and the Ministry of Defense in Beijing did not respond to requests for comment.

Informal discussions between the nuclear-armed powers and the United States and China have been divided over major economic and political issues. geopolitical issues, Leaders in Washington and Beijing have accused each other of making bad deals.

The two countries briefly resumed Track One talks on nuclear weapons in November, but talks have stalled since then, a senior U.S. official said publicly express frustration Look at China’s responsiveness.

Pentagon estimates Beijing’s nuclear arsenal Grow more than 20% Between 2021 and 2023, China said in October that it “will also consider using nuclear weapons to restore deterrence” if Taiwan’s conventional military defeat threatens the Communist Party’s rule.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and has stepped up military activities around Taiwan over the past four years.

The Track 2 talks are part of a two-decade dialogue on nuclear weapons and posture that stalled after the Trump administration withdrew funding in 2019.

Semi-official discussions on broader security and energy issues resumed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, but only the Shanghai meeting discussed nuclear weapons and posture in detail.

Santoro, who heads the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum think tank, described both sides’ “frustration” during recent discussions but said both delegations saw reason to continue the dialogue. He said more discussions were planned for 2025.

William Alberque, a nuclear policy analyst at the Henry Stimson Center think tank who was not involved in the March discussions, said Track Two talks would be useful during a period of icy relations between China and the United States.

When the issue of nuclear weapons arises, he said: “It is important to continue a dialogue with China with absolutely no expectations.”

The U.S. Department of Defense estimated last year that Beijing has 500 operational nuclear warheads and may deploy more than 1,000 by 2030.

By comparison, the United States and Russia deploy 1,770 and 1,710 combat warheads respectively. The Pentagon says that by 2030, most of Beijing’s weapons may be at a higher level of readiness.

Since 2020, China has also modernized its arsenal and started producing its weapons next generation ballistic missile submarinetest hypersonic glide vehicle Warhead and do it regularly Nuclear armed maritime patrol.

Land, air and sea weapons give China a “nuclear triad” – the hallmark of a major nuclear-armed power.

Santoro said that a key issue that the United States wants to discuss is whether China still adheres to the no-first-use and minimum deterrence policies since it built its first nuclear bomb in the early 1960s.

Minimal deterrence is having enough atomic weapons to deter an adversary.

China is also one of the two major nuclear powers (the other being India) that has pledged not to initiate a nuclear exchange. Chinese military analysts speculate that the no-first-use policy is conditional — and that nuclear weapons May be used against Taiwan’s allies ——But this is still Beijing’s established position.

Santoro said Chinese representatives told U.S. representatives that Beijing maintains those policies and that “we are not interested in achieving nuclear parity with you, let alone gaining advantage.”

“‘Nothing has changed, it’s business as usual, you are exaggerating,'” Santoro said, summarizing Beijing’s stance.

His account of the discussions was corroborated by U.S. representative Lyle Morris, a security scholar at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Santoro said a report on the discussions was being prepared for the U.S. government but would not be made public.

Bonnie Jenkins, a senior U.S. arms control official, told Congress in May that China had not yet responded to Washington’s proposals to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons during formal talks last year.

China has not yet agreed to hold further intergovernmental meetings.

A U.S. State Department spokesman told Reuters that Beijing’s “refuse to engage substantively” in discussions about its nuclear buildup has raised questions about its “already vague ‘no first use’ policy and its broader nuclear doctrine.”

Santoro and Morris said China’s Track 2 delegation did not discuss the specifics of Beijing’s modernization efforts.

Albock of the Henry Stimson Center said China relied heavily on “risk and opacity” to undermine the United States’ nuclear advantage and that Beijing had “no need” to engage in constructive discussions.

Albock said China’s expanded arsenal – which includes anti-ship cruise missiles, bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarines – exceeds the needs of a country with a minimum deterrence and no-first-use policy.

Chinese talking points revolve around the “survivability” of Beijing’s nuclear weapons against a first strike, Morris said.

The U.S. representative said China described their efforts as a deterrence-based modernization program in response to developments such as improvements in U.S. missile defense systems, enhanced surveillance capabilities and strengthening alliances.

The United States, Britain and Australia signed an agreement last year to share nuclear submarine technology and develop new submarines, while Washington is currently working with Seoul coordinated response to potential atomic attacks.

Washington’s nuclear weapons policy includes the possibility of using nuclear weapons if deterrence fails, although the Pentagon says it would consider doing so only in extreme circumstances. It did not provide specific details.

Morris said a Chinese representative “pointed to studies showing that Chinese nuclear weapons are still vulnerable to U.S. strikes — their second-strike capabilities are not adequate.”