Next week’s jobs report will kick off the second half of 2024 | Wilnesh News
The stock market has a lot to look forward to in the second half of this year. We’re halfway through 2024, and major benchmarks have soared to impressive heights. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hovering near all-time highs, up about 15% and 18% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is less heavily invested in technology stocks, is up nearly 4% so far this year. Much of the gains in the broad market indexes and the tech-heavy Nasdaq can be attributed to Nvidia, which has now grown so big that it affects the entire market. The stock has soared nearly 800% since the artificial intelligence chip maker began taking off in January 2023. Just this month, it made even more progress: Nvidia briefly surpassed Microsoft to become the most valuable public company. And, it’s one of only three mega-stocks to cross the $3 trillion threshold. Deutsche Bank Research noted that Nvidia achieved this milestone in just 30 days, rapidly increasing its market capitalization by US$1 trillion. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia The boom has many investors worried that artificial intelligence trading – and by extension the market – has exhausted their energy, and they are considering how to adjust their portfolios for the rest of the year. If last week’s volatility is any indication, the road ahead is sure to be volatile. “The stock market warning lights are starting to flash, but most investors don’t hear or see them as FOMO intensifies and investors are just enjoying the ride,” wrote Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. , the longer these warning lights flash, the more painful the repair costs (market correction) will be. ” The Nasdaq rose 0.2% on Friday, capping a winning week. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 30-stock index both fell, down 0.1% each. Gains limited Stocks appear to be in the middle of the year Moment. In recent days, some Wall Street firms have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 to catch up with this year’s surprisingly strong rebound. Goldman Sachs, for example, now expects a broader end-of-year target of 5,600 points. The index will reach 5,600 points, higher than the previous forecast of 5,100 points. Elsewhere, Evercore ISI raised its target to 6,000 points, which means that the share price may rise by 9% in the next six months. However, few investors are holding on. So hopeful. A CNBC Pro survey showed that the median strategist expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 5,500 points, which is not even 1% higher than the 5,482.87 points where the broader index closed on Thursday. Instead, more investors are worried that stocks could take an ugly turn in the summer — a historically weak period for the market that some fear has gone too far. Others are worried that the second-quarter earnings season coming up in a few weeks may not live up to lofty expectations, Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert said this week on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “So, essentially, from our perspective, it’s all set. It’s because we have to be prepared for the pullback from summer to fall. “We think then prepare ourselves to have a better chance at the end of the year. Piper Sandler’s Johnson, on the other hand, expects the S&P 500 to drop 10% this summer, saying investors are failing to heed red flags such as poor market breadth and waning momentum. In his model portfolio, he would He reduced his equity position from 90% to 80% and allocated the balance to cash. Still, others remain relatively optimistic about the outlook for stocks, noted Bill Mertz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. , a “fairly benign” growth environment, slowing inflation and the start of global interest rate cuts are reasons to be constructive on the stock market outlook. “Putting all of these factors together, we think this is an environment conducive to risk-taking, conducive to risk-taking in a modest way,” said Mertz, who expects the rally could extend beyond large-cap stocks. Laffer Tengler’s Jamie Meyers said he remains bullish on technology and sees the companies as “new defensive brands.” However, he is avoiding consumer-related stocks, fearing a possible pullback amid signs of weakness. “Consumers seem to be running out of money,” Meyers said. “The exception, of course, is the baby boomers who are still spending like crazy.” Markets for the June jobs report will be closed Thursday for the National Day holiday. However, investors will get their next big insight into the labor market in Friday’s June jobs report. The U.S. economy is expected to add 190,000 jobs in June, down from 272,000 the previous month, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%. U.S. Bank’s Meltz said the monthly jobs report will only grow in importance as investors seek insights into consumers. While consumers have so far kept the economy afloat, they have now exhausted their pandemic stimulus measures and are starting to show signs of weakness. Mertz said this means they are increasingly reliant on jobs and higher wages to cope with higher price pressures. “For consumers, it depends on current employment and income,” he said. On Wednesday, investors will also get the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Ahead Week Calendar All Times Monday, July 1 9:45 AM ET S&P PMI Final Manufacturing (June) 10 AM Construction Spending (May) 10 AM ISM Manufacturing (June) July 2 Tuesday 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (May) Wednesday, July 3 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (June) 8:30 a.m. Continuing Claims (6/22) 8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims Headcount (6/29) 8:30 AM Trade Balance (May) 9:45 AM Composite Final PMI (June) 9:45 AM S&P Services PMI Final (June) 10 AM Durable Orders (5 Month) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (May) 10 a.m. ISM Services PMI (June) 2 p.m. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Constellation Brands Thursday, July 4 Independence Day Holiday Friday, July 5 8 a.m. 30 June Employment Report
