Vandalized posters bearing images of local candidates for the European Parliament elections are mixed with posters from the first round of the 2024 French legislative elections in Val d’Ari, Calvados province, June 24, 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron made the decision to hold early legislative elections in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, 2024 due to the disastrous defeat of French parties at the far-right National Rally in the 2024 European Parliament elections.
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French voters will go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of early parliamentary elections, polls show, with the far-right National Rally group likely to become the largest party in France’s National Assembly.
In early June, French President Emmanuel Macron was soundly defeated in the European Parliament elections by a National Rally led by Jordan Bardella and veteran right-wing politician Marine Le Pen. Later, the vote was announced, shocking voters and political pundits.
Macron called for early elections, with two rounds of voting on Sunday and July 7, saying the vote would provide “clarification” and that “France needs a clear majority to act in a calm and harmonious manner”.
Analysts said Macron’s shock move may have been based on a gamble that even if national rallies performed well, a potentially chaotic and disorderly period in power would reduce his rival Marine Le Pen’s chances of becoming France’s leader in 2027. possibility.
French President Emmanuel Macron awaits the arrival of guests for a meeting in support of Ukraine with European leaders and government representatives on February 26, 2024 in Paris, France.
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Close observers of French politics also noted that Macron was ultimately betting that French citizens would fear a far-right government and vote against nationalist and anti-immigration parties.
But June voter polls consistently showed the National Rally in the lead in the race, predicting the party would get about 35% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front bloc (about 25-26% of the vote) and Macron’s centrist wing Solidarity Alliance.
Even if the vote most likely results in a hung parliament – with no party able to secure an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly’s 577 seats – a strong showing at the National Assembly will put pressure on Macron to act.
The new prime minister – in this case most likely Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of the national assembly – will have a major say in France’s domestic and economic policy, while President Macron will continue Responsible for foreign policy and defence.
National Union President Marine Le Pen joins National Union President Jordan Bardera at the last rally before the European Parliament elections on June 9 at the Dome in Paris – Palais des Sports, June 2, 2024.
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Regardless, such an outcome would force ideologically divergent (and often opposing) politicians into an uneasy and awkward cohabitation, with governments likely to become testy and unstable, prompting economists to wonder how the vote will affect the euro concerns about the region’s second largest economy.
“Markets reacted negatively to election uncertainty, with French stocks underperforming and the French-German 10-year bond yield spread widening,” Peter Garnry, head of strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note on Monday.
“Nonetheless, some views suggest markets may be overreacting, similar to the experience under Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, who initially feared a policy that was more pragmatic than expected,” he noted.
deal making
Political analysts say there is likely to be a period of tough bargaining after the election as parties look to form alliances that could give them a parliamentary majority and the best possible fractious governance. Analysts warn this could be a painful process.
“As with the 2022 election, no party or group is likely to gain enough seats to form a majority government, although some polls suggest the RN has an external chance of doing so. The next government is likely to require some form of co-operation between the different parties. of negotiation. Monday’s analysis.
“If RN gets enough votes to come close to forming a government, it could potentially gain support from dissident members of the (centre-right) Fianna Fáil to secure a majority or argue that no other government is feasible.”
Dyson pointed out that current polls show that the United Left Group will become the second largest parliament after the Republicans, and the next government may also be a left-wing government, able to get the support of the Republicans and Macron’s centrist Ennahda party.
“Macron is likely to enlist the support of centrist parties to propose a candidate of his choice for prime minister, but parties are unlikely to offer support as his party is expected to perform very poorly,” Dyson said.
French President Emmanuel Macron looks on after delivering a speech at the Nexus Institute at the Amare Theater in The Hague as part of a state visit to the Netherlands on April 11, 2023.
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Dyson added that even if the new prime minister had the support of centrist parties, the government would “regularly conduct confidence votes and have to engage in complex consensus-building every time it seeks to pass even slightly divisive legislation”.
Meanwhile, a far-right government with a parliamentary majority would find itself ideologically at odds with the president, who “could use his position to undermine his policy plans,” Dyson added. “A similar but less dramatic situation could arise between a left-wing prime minister and a president.”
Dyson said: “In all cases, this will lead to increased political uncertainty and instability. It will also lead to backtracking and changes to announced policy plans amid iterative negotiations and consensus-building processes, thereby creating new challenges for businesses. creates regulatory uncertainty.
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