A person in the back looks at the outgoing MP Danielle Simonnet (Paris 20th arrondissement, 15th arrondissement), member of the parliamentary group La France Insoumise (LFI NUPES, left-wing opposition) and dissident candidate (part of the LFI Liberal Party) Campaign poster against Celine Verzeletti (supported by Jean-Luc Mélenchon), the official candidate of the New Front for the People (supported by Jean-Luc Mélenchon) nominated by the LFI in the early legislative elections, June 30, 2024, Paris, France.
Amaury Konu | AFP | Getty Images
France’s left-wing and centrist parties are scrambling to prevent the rival National Rally from winning ongoing parliamentary elections, analysts say, after the far-right surged in support in Sunday’s first round.
Data released Monday morning French Ministry of the Interior It showed that the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies received a combined 33.1% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition won 28% and French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Solidarity bloc 20%.
The results of the first round have sparked discussions among left-wing and centrist politicians about how to minimize the number of parliamentary seats RN will gain in the second round of voting on July 7.
“Our goal is clear: to prevent the National Assembly from gaining an absolute majority in the second round of elections, to prevent the National Assembly from becoming dominant and from governing the country through disastrous projects,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel, a Macron ally. Attar said. wrote The news was posted on social media platform X on Sunday night, according to a CNBC translation.
He added: “I say it with the intensity that I ask of each and every one of our voters at this moment: not a single vote must go to the National Assembly.”
Second round of tactical voting
French parliamentary elections are usually held in two rounds, with parties needing at least 12.5% of the vote in constituencies to advance to the decisive second round.
“More than half of the 577 parliamentary seats – a historically high number – are expected to go to the second round of voting, with significant tactical voting now likely,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note on Monday.
Politicians from various left-wing and centrist parties are now calling on the candidate who came third in the race against the far-right candidate to withdraw from the election, Efforts were made to consolidate support into a centralized front against the RN.
The final outcome of the election will depend on a deal between left-wing and centrist parties, Mujtaba Rahman and Anna-Karina Hamke of the Eurasia Group said in a report on Sunday.
“Everything now depends on the scramble between the left-wing coalition and the centrist faction defeated by President Macron to reach national and local agreements to prevent RN from winning the second round next Sunday,” they said.
Lachman and Hamke added that the large number of seats with three candidates still in the race means there is a good chance of building a so-called “Republican front” that could help defeat a party that only narrowly won in the first round. Registered Nurse Candidate.
Even so, they note, other factors may hinder ambitions to defeat the far right, voter turnout may vary and tactical voting may not be as successful as hoped.
Three scenarios
Pascal Lamy, vice president of the Paris Peace Forum and former director-general of the World Trade Organization, told CNBC on Monday that uncertainty about the future still exists.
“The second round looks very uncertain,” he said, adding that many three-candidate races will be “very close.”
Lamy said there were still three potential election outcomes: a far-right majority in parliament, a hung parliament or an alliance with the far-right. He suggested all three options remain on the table for now.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, highlights the second scenario.
“The most likely outcome remains a hung parliament, where neither the far right, the United Left nor Macron’s center can achieve a majority. In this case, any (new) government will not be able to do much,” he said on Monday.
About The Author
