On June 27, 2024, Tehran, Iran, before the early presidential election, a citizen stood in front of a candidate poster for the 14th presidential election on the street.
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Iran will hold a runoff election on Friday, July 5, pitting far-right hardliners against reformists as the Middle Eastern country faces daunting economic, social and geopolitical challenges.
After former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in Iran, Iran held snap elections on June 28. No presidential candidate could win a majority. The runoff will allow all 6,100 million eligible Iranian voters cast their ballots.
Voter turnout hit a record low of around 40% on Friday, the lowest in any presidential election in the Islamic Republic’s 45-year history, but two very different candidates stood out.
Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian leads with 10.4 million votes out of 24.5 million cast, followed by hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili with 9.4 million votes back.
Two other candidates in Friday’s race – Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Shiite cleric Mustafa Pourmohammadi – each received 3.3 million votes and about 206,000 votes cast. Two more candidates dropped out of the race on Thursday out of six candidates approved by Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council. With the exception of Pezeshkian, all candidates are seen as deeply conservative and anti-Western.
A man holds up a banner during a campaign rally for reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian at Afrasiyabi Stadium in Tehran ahead of the upcoming presidential election in Iran on June 23, 2024 Small election flag.
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Jalili is a former nuclear negotiator who currently serves as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative on the Supreme National Security Council, considered the regime’s most hardline faction and its top security body. Jalili, 58, is one of the far-right candidates allowed to run in snap elections and is a long-time Iranian government insider who has made several failed attempts to run for office.
Pezeshkian, meanwhile, is by far the most moderate of Iran’s presidential candidates. He served as health minister from 1997 to 2005 under Mohammad Khatami, Iran’s last reformist president, who and other reformist politicians supported him.
Pezeshkian, 69, has also served as a member of parliament since 2008. He wants to ease social restrictions such as Iran’s strict headscarf law and improve relations with the West, including possibly restarting nuclear talks with world powers.
Iranian presidential candidate Saeed Jalili will vote in the snap presidential election on June 28, 2024 in Tehran, Iran.
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The election comes at a fraught time for the country of 88 million, where turnout has so far been low. Iranians will be a battered economy, widespread popular dissatisfaction and a harsh crackdown on dissent. Iran is also responding high inflation, Severe sanctions from the Westgrowing tensions with the United States, Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities accelerate and Israel’s war with Hamas.
The first-round results for reformist Pezeshkian, who many analysts had previously described as a low-profile second-tier candidate, surprised many observers.
Nader Itayim, Argus Media’s Middle East Gulf editor, told CNBC that Pezeshkian “absolutely” has a chance of winning the presidency. “But,” he said, “I think it’s going to depend on turnout and his ability to get some disillusioned voters to come out and participate.”
The outcome also depends on whether the votes of Qalibaf and other conservatives who are no longer running will go to Jalili.
Itaim said he did not expect a higher turnout than the previous lowest turnout of 48.8% for the presidential vote, which took place during the 2021 election of hardline ex-President Lacey .
“But I certainly didn’t expect it to drop to 40%,” Itayim said. “Even if there was a committed reformist on the ballot, 40 percent actually said something.”
Although Iran’s regional and foreign policies are primarily determined by its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than the country’s president, the election results could still influence Iran’s policy toward Iran. us, said Trita Passi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute.
“Pezeshkian argued for the need for direct negotiations with the United States and could bring back the foreign policy team responsible for negotiating the nuclear deal,” Passi said. “Jalili, a hardline conservative who opposed the Iran nuclear deal, was expressed objection.”
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