On July 1, 2024, Keir Starmer, leader of the British opposition Labor Party, attended a campaign event held at a farm in Oxfordshire, England.
Phil Noble | Reuters
LONDON – As Britons go to the polls on July 4, the incoming British government will face a complex international situation.
Labor leader Keir Starmer is widely expected to lead his party to victory, promising to usher in a “decade of national renewal” after 14 years of Conservative rule.
But the centre-left politician will also seek to redefine Britain’s international image in the wake of Brexit, recent domestic political and economic missteps and an even more fractured global landscape. CNBC explores the incoming administration’s foreign policy priorities.
Coping with U.S.-China trade tensions
At the top of the new administration’s agenda will be how to handle the sensitive relationship between the global superpower and geopolitical rivals the United States and China.
Labor will be keen to maintain Britain’s so-called special relationship with its transatlantic allies, presenting a united front in areas of common strategic interest. But it also requires adaptation Protectionism in the United States is stronger and can be difficult to predict, especially if there is a change in leadership following the U.S. presidential election in November.
David Dunn, a professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, told CNBC by phone: “You can imagine the incoming relationship between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump. Trump will have an awkward relationship. “But they will work together. “
The UK, like the EU, is in a very ambiguous position, relying on China but also worried about territorial gains and regional threats.
David Dunn
Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham
Progress on a UK-US free trade agreement – one of the key promises of the Brexit campaign – is also likely to be limited given the current interest from both Republican and Democratic governments. Chatham House presidents Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O’Sullivan said in a report in May that the UK was likely to focus on certain “sector deals” and continue to work on military and Build partnerships on key technologies.
Dunn said that in the face of a more assertive China, Labor was likely to continue the UK’s current “deliberate strategic ambiguity” stance, taking into account the UK’s economic ties with Beijing even amid geopolitical and national security concerns. secretary of labor Like the Conservatives, Chinese-founded fast fashion giant Shein met with the company ahead of its London listing despite disputes over its human rights record.
“The UK’s position is very ambiguous, as is the EU’s, which is dependent on China but also worried about territorial gains and regional threats,” Dunn said.
Repair EU relations
Labor is also likely to establish a closer working relationship with the EU.
Starmer, who Calling on the Remain campaign not to leave the EU in the UK’s 2016 referendum, he said “No case” Rejoin the EU, including its single market and customs union. Still, he promised to improve the “terrible” UK-EU deal, including in areas such as trade, research and security.
“There may be an opportunity to revisit the core elements of the trade relationship — not immediately, but to rebuild trust and relationships on both sides,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, told CNBC by phone. After running more smoothly.
Protesters marched with large flags during national rejoining marches. Pro-EU groups demonstrate in central London, England.
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The UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine during Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country also helped to ease relations with its EU neighbors and establish the UK’s post-Brexit role in supporting European security. This position looks set to be maintained under a Labor government.
Chatham House’s Maddox and O’Sullivan said: “This support strengthens the dialogue between the UK and EU countries on shared risks, providing an opportunity for more constructive discussions on the UK’s post-Brexit relationship. .
improve national security
Strengthening the UK’s national security will also be a top priority for Labour, amid rising global tensions and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Labor mirrors Conservative plan in election manifesto Increase defense spending to 2.5% gross domestic product (GDP), but replaced the 2023 timetable with ambition to achieve the target “ASAP.”
The UK should play a consistent role on global issues…especially climate change, international development, and arms control.
Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O’Sullivan
Director of Chatham House
However, given the current geopolitical landscape, Chatham House recommends increasing defense spending to at least 3%.
Starmer also said Labor would “maintain an unshakable commitment to NATO and our nuclear deterrent and refocus on boosting morale in our armed forces”. However, discussions about the future shaping of the transatlantic military alliance are likely to continue into the next U.S. administration.
strengthen international order
Starmer’s more general priority may be to establish Britain as a stabilizing force in a year of global electoral and political turmoil.
“People are trying to be a pillar of stability in a changing world,” Dunn said, adding that Labor could be a counterweight. Shifting political mood in Europe and the United States
“Britain practiced populism very early. While much of the rest of the Western world was moving to the right, Britain was moving to the left,” he said.
Chatham House directors said these areas of influence could include diplomacy, security and international law and order, areas in which the UK already has established expertise.
Chatham House’s O’Sullivan and Maddox added: “The UK should play a coherent role on credible global issues, particularly on climate change, international development, arms control and technology governance.”
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