Supporters of a French national rally in Herning-Beaumont, northern France, on June 30, 2024.
François Lou Presti | AFP | Getty Images
French voters will go to the polls on Sunday for the second and final round of early parliamentary elections.
Center-right and left-wing parties have joined forces to try to block the RN’s advance after preliminary votes showed the far-right National Rally (RN) would become the largest party in France’s National Assembly.
President Macron’s “Solidarity” coalition and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) both called on voters to reject the party in the second round and withdrew candidates from many constituencies where other candidates were more likely to defeat them.
By providing voters with tighter choices and fewer candidates, opponents of registered nursing hope voters will choose non-registered nursing candidates.
Analysts predict that the National Rally, the nationalist, anti-immigration and Eurosceptic party led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and party leader Marine Le Pen, is now less likely to An absolute majority is possible (289 out of 577 seats).
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella during the last rally before the June 9 European Parliament elections at the Dome-Palais de Sports in Paris on June 2, 2024 .
Noor Photos | Noor Photos | Getty Images
The main purpose of the so-called “Republican Front” strategy promoted by pro-Macron and left-wing parties is to make it more difficult for the Republicans to obtain an absolute majority.
Still, it’s unclear how voters will react to: a) being told by the political establishment who to vote for; b) being asked to vote for party candidates they may instinctively oppose; c) mixed messages from political leaders who Now tell them to vote for the competitor they disparaged on the campaign trail days ago.
Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at consultancy Teneo, said in a report on Wednesday that “several senior figures in the pro-Macron camp have different suggestions for what their voters should do.”
“For example, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has said that voters should vote neither for RN nor for candidates from the far-left French Indomitable Party (LFI). Meanwhile, current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called Everyone voted against RN.
A poll published by Ifop It said on July 3 that if such a choice appeared on the ballot, voters might be inclined to support Macron’s centrist or left-wing candidate rather than the RN candidate. However, if the choice is between far-left and far-right candidates, the picture is more nuanced, showing how divided the vote is.
Tenio’s Barroso also warned that polling data relate to “national-level attitudes and ignore the local dynamics of each constituency”.
what might happen
The first poll released after the formation of the cross-party anti-RN coalition showed that RN and its allies will get 190 to 220 seats, far lower than the 289 seats needed for a majority.
A Harris Interactive poll for Challenge magazine, released on Wednesday and reported by Reuters, also showed that center-right Republicans could win 30-50 seats, meaning that even in the best-case scenario, a right-wing-led minority government would struggle to form.
The Harris poll showed that the left-wing NFP coalition would win between 159 and 183 seats, while Macron’s co-op coalition would win only between 110 and 135 seats. According to Reuters, other parties will win between 17 and 31 seats.
French President Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping (not pictured) attended the sixth meeting of the France-China Business Council at the Marigny Theater in Paris, France on May 6, 2024.
Mohammad Badla/Pool | via Reuters
It is unclear whether Macron would consider forming a cross-party coalition with the National Party in the event of a hung parliament. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said this week that moderates in the National Assembly could work together to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis, but with each party focused on maximizing their share of the vote, there would be little else on the matter speech.
Teneo’s political analysis assesses the probability of a hung parliament at 35%, stating that “in this case it does not allow negotiating alliances with other parties”.
“This situation will be the most uncertain one, as there is no easy solution to form a government. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested that the “republican forces” (i.e. non-National Assembly parties) in the National Assembly could unite to support the government , but given the differences in policy preferences between the parties, such an alliance will be difficult to form.
Tenio believes that the RN has a 35% chance of getting close to an absolute majority, in which case Marine Le Pen may try to win over the center-right party Republicans (LR) and other independent right-wing legislators. They gave the RN a 30% chance of gaining an absolute majority.
how we got here
Macron shocked voters by announcing the vote after his Renaissance party suffered a crushing defeat at the National Assembly in the European Parliament elections in early June.
Jordan Bardella presents his electoral card to vote at a polling station during the first round of parliamentary elections in the Paris suburb of Garches on June 30, 2024.
Julian DeRosa | AFP | Getty Images
Macron called for early elections, saying the vote would provide “clarification” and that “France needs a clear majority to act calmly and harmoniously.”
Macron’s gamble has raised questions among political analysts, who question whether the move may be based on a plan to give the national rally a taste of power but hope it will fail once in government, to the detriment of his rival Marine Le Pen. Chances of the 2027 presidential election.
Close observers of French politics also noted that Macron was ultimately betting on French citizens worried about a far-right government.
On the eve of the first round of voting, voter polls consistently showed RN in the lead in the race, but in the end, RN and its allies won 33.1% of the vote; the NFP came in second with 28%; Macron’s coalition reached 20 %,France Ministry of Interior explain.
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