Winter afternoon in Vilnius, Lithuania.
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Lithuanians voted on Sunday in the first round of parliamentary elections that could see the center-right ruling coalition replaced by the opposition Social Democrats and smaller center-left parties.
Despite the economic success, strict COVID-19 measures and an influx of migrants have cast a pall over the government of conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who took office in 2020.
Although EU member Lithuania has seen double-digit annual personal income growth and one of the lowest inflation rates among the 27 EU countries, many voters don’t appear to be buying the bill.
“There is a lot of disappointment and dissatisfaction among voters,” said Rima Urbanit, a political analyst at Vilnius’ Mykolas Romeris University. “It is associated with many crises and shocks and cannot be compensated by economic factors such as positive changes in purchasing power.”
Simonet has been criticized for imposing strict measures during the pandemic, with many complaining that her government did not do enough to help businesses during the lockdown. Others say thousands of people lack access to adequate health care.
Simonet has also been heavily criticized for his handling of migrants arriving via Belarus. Lithuania’s eastern neighbors, as well as Russia, are orchestrating an influx of people, mostly from Africa and the Middle East.
A recent survey by polling agency Vilmorus showed Vilija Blinkevičiūtė’s Social Democratic Party will top the polls, with twice as many votes as Simonit’s Fatherland Alliance. Nemuno Aušra, the newly registered party of right-wing politician Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who was impeached earlier this year for making anti-Semitic remarks, will step in between them.
However, no single party was able to gain more than 20% of the vote, forcing anyone hoping to govern to seek coalitions.
The Social Democrats have ruled out a coalition with Zemetatis’ party, meaning it would take three or four parties, likely small groups representing the political center, to form a governing coalition.
“I have voted conservative all my life, but this year I want to vote for another good party instead of them,” said Darius Mikalauskas, 51, a teacher in Vilnius. explain. “Simone and the entire Motherland League look tired and they would be better off spending some time on the reserve bench.”
Analysts say the shift to the left will not bring about major changes in foreign policy in Lithuania, which also borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west. But the vote comes at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has fueled larger concerns about Moscow’s intentions, particularly in the strategically important Baltic Sea region.
“In this country, foreign policy direction is primarily determined by the president,” Urbanette said. Earlier this year, President Gitanas Nauseda defeated Simonet in the presidential election and won a second five-year term.
In 2020, Simonet led the Fatherland Alliance to victory in the parliamentary elections. She later formed a coalition with the two liberal parties, the Liberal Party and the Liberal Movement.
Some 2.4 million people are eligible to elect 141 members of parliament for four-year terms in two rounds. On Sunday, 70 MPs will be elected on party lists, joined by those who win more than 50% of the vote in single mandate constituencies. The runoff will be held on October 27, with most single-member constituencies voting for the two leading candidates.
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