December 26, 2024

Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump shouts during a campaign event in Freeland, Michigan, USA on May 1, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

This reported column is the first in a two-part series by Eamon Javers on the new conservative economic populism among Republicans close to former President Donald Trump To have a role to play.

Check back for Part Two on Wednesday to learn about the key figures leading this broad shift in conservatives’ approach to labor, free markets and regulation.

WASHINGTON – Trump’s first term as president shattered the Republican Party’s conservative economic ideology of free markets and tariffs.

A Trump re-election could undermine everything else about economic policy.

That’s because the economic and political landscape of the 2024 presidential election is very different from Trump’s previous campaigns.

Conservative economic thinkers have now had at least eight years to construct an intellectual and policy framework around Trump’s instinctive economic populist message.

What they offer is a set of worker-first, anti-corporate elite policy proposals that are increasingly popular within the party and in Trump’s economic circles.

Taken together, the plans amount to a radically different economic approach from the Reagan economic consensus on tax, regulation and trade that dominated the Republican Party from the late 1970s to Trump’s first election in 2016.

If Trump is re-elected president in November, these proposals are likely to be front and center on his second-term economic agenda.

I spoke with Sohrab Ahmari, a former Wall Street Journal editorial writer and one of the architects of the new populism, to get his perspective on where conservative economics is headed.

Al-Ahmari’s vision for me was a Republican Party that was worker-centered and more pro-union than it is today.

At one point, Ahmadi paused and I said, “I can almost hear the CEOs of Amazon and Starbucks having heart attacks listening to this song.”

“Let them be,” Amari retorted. “Suffocate them.”

Trump’s New Populism

Disdain for America’s corporate giants is a key element of the new conservative, populist approach to economics.

Caught in the culture wars of the Trump era, these new populists don’t see corporate CEOs as natural allies for the Republican Party in a broader war against big government. Instead, they view C-suite executives as woke elitists seeking to impose their liberal cultural values ​​on middle America.

They believe that Reagan’s low-tax, low-regulation, free-market ideology did not work well for American workers, but worked very well for corporate elites.

Some argue that this wealthy class does not live in the same place or share the same values ​​as most social conservatives.

This new thinking urges conservatives to reject the kind of traditional Republican economic dogma that groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable have championed for decades in Washington.

Instead, the new populists hope to bring conservatives together to build a broader coalition, a kind of American capitalist workers’ party. They also have a specific list of goals.

Policy recommendations for the second Trump administration

  • A global tariff of 10% is imposed on all imported products.
  • Prevent U.S. companies from investing in China.
  • Prevent Chinese companies from entering the U.S. capital market.
  • Implement severe penalties for employees who fail to comply with immigration laws.
  • Eliminate the H-2A and H-2B programs for seasonal and agricultural workers.
  • H1-B visas are issued to the highest paying employer.
  • Create a $100 billion national development bank for critical infrastructure.
  • Repeal the National Environmental Policy Act of 1970.
  • Reforms of corporate insolvency require all employees to pay six months’ severance pay and a year’s worth of tax obligations to local communities.
  • Requires private companies employed by public pension funds to publish annual performance data.
  • A 10 basis point financial transaction tax is levied on secondary market sales of stocks, bonds and derivatives.
  • Ban stock buybacks and eliminate the pretax deduction for interest.

Source: AmericanCompass.org

To be clear, this is not yet the dominant idea in Republican economic thinking in Washington. But there’s no doubt it’s on the rise.

Bolstered by Trump’s success in reshaping the Republican Party in his own image, the new populism aims to capture the political energy of Kid Rock’s Bud Light brews and inject it into the dust of macroeconomic thinking Flying corners.

If Trump wins the November election, this new thinking will be felt in every economic decision made by his second administration. It could also upend old alliances, seeking to return economic power to workers rather than employers, and to local communities rather than national elites.

Even if Trump loses in November, this new approach to economics is likely to leave its mark on next year’s policy battles over issues such as unions, tariffs and whether to retain a 2017 corporate tax rate cut.

Understand that “work is important”

The new populist ideas emerging on the political right are being refined and promoted in Washington through a budding network of institutions. Chief among them is the nonprofit think tank American Compass, founded in 2020 by Oren Cass.

Cass believes that Republican economic policy has been focused on the wrong goals: lowering prices and increasing consumption.

Instead, he said, Republicans need to focus on production and value creation. “The mindset change is realizing that work is important and production is important,” Kass told me.

“The purpose of economic policy is to consume as much as possible, and that’s definitely a black-letter economic doctrine. But not all markets are productive markets. And there’s nothing that guarantees that doing things that optimize profits is good for society.”

According to Kass, much of the damage to the fabric of American society has been caused by decades of offshoring of American manufacturing. To solve the problem, he and others like him want to see sweeping tariffs.

On June 14, 2021, the Bronco SUV was being produced at Ford’s Michigan assembly plant.

Mike Welland | CNBC

Kass has also been scathing about Wall Street: “The private equity and hedge fund industries don’t generate value,” he said in our recent interview. “They get value out of the economy.”

“The hedge fund industry’s $300 billion in fees is not $300 billion in value,” he added.

What Kass and other neoconservative economists have in mind is to use the great power of the state—something that conservative politicians once outright opposed—to push companies to adopt more socially beneficial ways of working.

“The goal is to make productive activities more attractive and unproductive activities less attractive,” Kass said.

Cass’ economic approach could have serious consequences for Wall Street. He envisions a financial transactions tax aimed at raising the cost of trading assets and reducing what he sees as the financialization of the economy.

As Biden explained on CNBC during the 2020 campaign, he also supports a financial transaction tax.

Biden: We should have a financial transaction tax

“The constant rotation of assets creates no value and in fact creates the opposite value,” Kass said. He would also force public pension funds to invest their entire portfolios in domestic investments.

For Cass, cutting taxes—traditionally a top Republican priority—isn’t on the list at all. “There are times when tax cuts are needed, like they were in the 1970s,” Kass said.

“But it’s not conservative at all to elevate these things into dogma and say this is always the answer, more is better. This old ‘you shouldn’t raise taxes’ argument is a thing of the past.”

‘Serious threat’ to Republicans

These are not the types of economic thinking that executives on Wall Street or Silicon Valley would want to hear if a Republican administration were to take office.

“The kindest way to put it is economic populism,” said former Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who left office last year.

US Senator Toomey says there's no need to change the world's most successful economy

“But in reality, this is left-wing collectivism and statism.” Toomey said that if Trump is re-elected as president, it is unclear to what extent he will adopt this new thinking.

“I think this is a very serious threat to the Republican Party,” Toomey told me. “If the Republican Party looks like it has more in common with the left, a lot of people will leave the Republican Party.”

Coming up Wednesday: Part two of Eamonn Javers’ column on neoconservative populism. This time, Javers looks at the key figures leading the shift in the Republican approach to labor, free markets and regulation.

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