December 26, 2024

On June 19, 2024, Israel bombed the village of Shyam in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border, sending thick smoke billowing into the air.

Rabbi So | AFP | Getty Images

U.S., European and Arab mediators are pressing to prevent intensifying cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah militants backed by Iran from turning into a broader Middle East war that the world has feared for months. Iran and Israel exchanged threats on Saturday in what Iran said would be a “destructive” war against Hezbollah.

Faint hope for Israeli ceasefire Conflict with Hamas In Gaza, this would quell attacks by Hezbollah and other Iran-allied militias. U.S. and European diplomats and other officials are warning Hezbollah to counter Israel’s military might, current and former diplomats said. Overconfidence.

Americans and Europeans warned the group not to expect the United States or any other country to stop Israeli leaders if they decide to execute them Combat preparation plan for attack on Lebanon. Hezbollah should not expect its fighters to be equipped to handle whatever comes next.

On both sides of the Lebanese border, escalating attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the region’s best-armed fighting forces, appeared to be leveling off at least this week. While daily attacks continue to hit the border region, the slight shift brings hope of alleviating immediate fears that prompted the United States to send an amphibious assault ship and Marine expeditionary force to the area. Join other battleships in the area hoping to prevent wider conflict.

Gerald Fierstein, a former top U.S. Middle East diplomat, said that although hostilities have stabilized over the past week, “Israelis still appear to be…preparing in anticipation of some kind of conflict…” The severity of the conflict is entirely different. .

The message to Hezbollah, he said, is “not to think that you are as capable as you think you are.”

Starting the day after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, triggering the war in Gaza, Hezbollah has fired rockets into northern Israel and vowed to continue until the ceasefire takes effect. Israel struck back, with violence forcing tens of thousands of civilians to leave the border between the two countries. Attacks intensified this month after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander, and Hezbollah responded with some of its largest missile strikes.

UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths uses the word “apocalyptic” to describe possible war. Israel and Hezbollah, both dominant forces in politically divided Lebanon, are capable of inflicting heavy casualties.

“Such a war would be a disaster for Lebanon,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a recent meeting with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Galante at the Pentagon. “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah It can easily turn into a local warbringing dire consequences to the Middle East.

Gallant responded: “We are working closely to reach an agreement, but we also have to discuss preparations for every possible scenario.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (right) and Israeli Defense Minister Yov Gallant (second from left) meet during a meeting at the Pentagon in Washington, Tuesday, June 25, 2024. Contact expects Israel in October to discuss Israel’s actions in Gaza, humanitarian efforts in the region and tensions with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Analysts expect the reaction from other Iran-aligned militia groups in the region to be stronger than that against Hamas, and some experts have warned of an influx of ideologically motivated militants into the region to join. Tide can destroy stability.

Fierstein said the United States would intervene if any Israeli offensive in Lebanon “deteriorated significantly for the Israelis.” “I don’t think they see any alternatives.”

And Iran, that is Focus on political transition Domestically, it now shows no sign of wanting to start a war, and it considers Hezbollah a strategically important partner in the region – much more important than Hamas – and one that could be drawn into it.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations ratcheted up tensions in a message on Saturday, saying that if Israel launched a full-scale attack on Lebanon, a “devastating” war would ensue. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded by saying Israel would attack Hezbollah “with all its might” unless it stopped its attacks.

Although the United States helped Israel defeat Intensive Iranian missile and drone attacks The U.S. may not provide as much aid to Israel in April Defense against wider Hezbollah General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said: He said short-range rockets that Hezbollah often fires toward the border are difficult to defend against.

On January 14, 2024, in Kerbet Selm, southern Lebanon, Hezbollah movement leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech, and a man waved the Hezbollah movement flag. A week of commemorations since the killing of top field commander Wissam Tawil.

Mahmoud Zayat | AFP | Getty Images

After nearly nine months of war in Gaza, the Israeli army is stretched thin, and Hezbollah estimates it has about 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of attacking anywhere in Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli leaders have promised Gaza-like scenes of destruction in Lebanon if all-out war breaks out.

White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s point person on Israel’s tense relationship with Hezbollah, has so far not succeeded in getting both sides to reduce attacks.

France and other European countries with ties to Lebanon’s former colonial powers are also mediating, as well as Qatar and Egypt.

White House officials accused Hezbollah of exacerbating tensions and said the group supported Israel’s right to defend itself. The Biden administration has also told the Israelis that opening a second front is not in their interest. Galante emphasized this point repeatedly during recent talks in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Austin, CIA Director William Burns, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Hochstein and others.

“We will continue to help Israel defend itself; that will not change,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “But as for the assumptions — particularly regarding the northern border… — we again want to see no second “Three fronts are open and we want to see if we can’t resolve the tensions there through a diplomatic process.”

White House officials, however, do not discount the real possibility of a second front in the Middle East conflict.

A senior Biden administration official said that in conversations with Israeli and Lebanese officials and other regional stakeholders, the consensus was that “a significant escalation is not in anyone’s interest.”

On June 21, 2024, as cross-border conflicts continued between the Israeli army and Hezbollah militants, an Israeli airstrike hit a house in the village of Shyam in southern Lebanon, close to the border between Lebanon and Israel, sending out billowing black smoke.

Rabbi So | AFP | Getty Images

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and was not authorized to comment publicly on White House deliberations, was angered by the “so-called logic” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who argued that Israel would end the war by agreeing to a ceasefire. Party attacks with Hamas in Gaza.

But the official also acknowledged that an elusive ceasefire in Gaza would go a long way toward easing tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Biden four weeks ago proposed a three-phase deal that would lead to an extension of the truce and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but talks between Israel and Hamas appear to be at an impasse. The United States has presented new language to Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries aimed at trying to jump-start negotiations, a senior Biden administration official said on Saturday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an effort the White House has yet to publicly announce.

Even without a ceasefire, Hezbollah may ease its rocket fire into Israel if it ends its offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah and does not launch any new major offensive in Gaza, Randa Slim said .

But Slim said any temporary calm on the Lebanese-Israeli border “will not be enough” without a ceasefire in Gaza.

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