French President Emmanuel Macron looks on after delivering a speech at the Nexus Institute at the Amare Theater in The Hague as part of a state visit to the Netherlands on April 11, 2023.
Ludovic Marin | AFP | Getty Images
France’s early first round of parliamentary elections showed a surge in votes for the anti-immigration National Rally party, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition finishing third.
Early polling data from state broadcaster France 2 showed the National Rally (RN) winning 34% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance received 28.1%. Macron’s centrist Together group received 20.3%, according to preliminary forecasts, which were based on a sample of actual results from polling stations that closed in the early afternoon.
Polling stations in major cities will close later. Clearer results will be revealed after 10pm local time.
Candidates can be elected in the first round only if they obtain an absolute majority of votes and receive the support of more than 25% of local registered voters. If no candidate meets that criteria, a second round of voting is held, listing the top two candidates and any other candidates who receive support from more than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who wins the most votes wins the seat.
Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo, said the second round of voting on July 7 is worth watching.
“First-round wins tend to have little impact on the overall outcome (no particular party had a surprisingly high number of wins). That’s why, aside from each party’s overall vote share, the main question to watch on Sunday night is How many candidates from each party advanced to the second round,” he said in a report on Wednesday.
“If, as expected, Together doesn’t perform well in the first round, there will be a lot of games between NFP and RN.”
Ahead of the first vote, French voter polls suggested the far-right National Rally party would win about 35% of the vote in the election, followed by the left-wing NFP coalition and then a coalition of pro-Macron parties in third place. three.
As a result, the National Assembly is widely expected to significantly increase its share of the 577-seat French parliament from the current 89 seats.
National Union President Marine Le Pen joins National Union President Jordan Bardera at the last rally before the European Parliament elections on June 9 at the Dome in Paris – Palais des Sports, June 2, 2024.
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Still, forecasts on Sunday suggested that no party would win an absolute majority of at least 289 seats after the first round of voting, pointing to a hung parliament and a period of political and economic uncertainty after the vote.
Regardless of the outcome of the vote, French President Emmanuel Macron will remain in office until 2027, but he may face pressure to elect a new prime minister from national rallies (even if the party fails to secure an absolute majority in the final vote). A possible candidate is 28-year-old RN President Jordan Bardella.
The new prime minister will have a major say in France’s domestic and economic policy, while Macron will remain in charge of foreign policy and defence. Regardless, so-called “cohabitation” could make things difficult for governments, raising concerns among economists about how the vote will affect the euro zone’s second-largest economy.
French President Emmanuel Macron awaits the arrival of guests for a meeting in support of Ukraine with European leaders and government representatives on February 26, 2024 in Paris, France.
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In early June, after Macron’s Renaissance party was defeated by the National Assembly in the European Parliament elections, Macron shocked the European political world by announcing early voting.
Political analysts said Macron’s move was an extreme gamble, with the president betting that French citizens would fear and ultimately reject the prospect of a far-right government. Instead, he seemed to embolden his political opponents.
— CNBC’s Charlotte Reed contributed to this article
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