Global stock markets are up more than 12% in the first half of 2024, and if history repeats itself, investors will make big money in the next six months. A CNBC Pro analysis of the past 50 years of MSCI World Index price data shows that when the index rose more than 12% in the first six months of the year, it continued to rise 83% of the time in the second half of the year. Yet since the late 1980s, after rising more than 12% in the first half of the year, stocks have risen every time in the second half. The analysis also shows that since 1970, the average annual price return of the global stock market index has been 21.25%, with a mid-year increase of more than 12%. Since 1989, the U.S.-only S&P 500 Index has performed very similarly to the MSCI World Index. 10%. When the index lost momentum after rising in the first half, the decline was relatively small. For example, when the stock market fell in 1975, 1983 and 1986, investors lost between 1.8% and 5.2%. Stock market performance in the second half of 1987 (when Black Monday occurred) was the only exception to double-digit losses for investors: the MSCI World Index lost 20% and the S&P 500 lost 18.7%. .SPX 1Y line
