Like many energy companies, Exxon Mobil (XOM) has underperformed since April, but the stock has been rebounding in recent weeks and may be on its way to new highs. First, let’s recognize Exxon Mobil’s importance despite the fact that the S&P 500 is dominated by growth companies. XOM has a market capitalization of $510 billion, ranking 16th on the index. It’s also the only energy company among the index’s top 25 holdings. Chevron currently ranks 26th, with a market capitalization of $283 billion. In other words, XOM is nearly twice the size of the index’s second-largest energy component. XOM is within 7% of its 52-week high of $123.75 from April 12, which is also its all-time high. Of course, our biggest concern is the stock’s chart outlook. Admittedly, the daily chart is not very attractive at the moment. The stock remains close to the highs just mentioned, but has failed to capitalize on any rebound attempts over the past few months. This is frustrating for traders who were expecting better results. However, the same volatile trading range since April has become part of a larger underlying bullish pattern – which is most evident on the weekly chart. In fact, if we construct price action from spring 2023 to now, we see a huge potential bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. To be clear, this formation is not complete yet; it first needs to break through the neckline near $123-124. If this happens, the $150 price target will be triggered. Now, let’s zoom out. This is a quarterly chart from 50 years ago. To put this into perspective, XOM has previously broken out of a multi-year bullish pattern five times. The last one occurred in 2004, leading to strong price action in early 2008. We’ll have to wait until XOM 2022 to finally reclaim this area. The yellow shaded area is the same bullish pattern highlighted above. In other words, breaking out to new highs now will ultimately help extend the 14-year bullish pattern breakout (2008-2022). Of course, XOM is subject to the future direction of crude oil. While the likelihood of XOM moving away from commodities entirely is low, the stock has been forming a bullish chart pattern relative to crude since late 2022. XOM will report earnings next Friday, August 2. To be sure, technology will never be able to predict a company’s financial health, but we now know what’s at stake from a chart perspective. Disclosure: None. All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are theirs alone and do not reflect the views of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, online or other media . The above is subject to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not apply to your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Click here to view the complete disclaimer.
